Canada Economics Update Labour market’s strong performance will soon end Trade uncertainty and increased competition in the food delivery service sector help to explain the unusual strength of employment growth. Surveys now suggest that jobs growth will slow and, even with... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Who is getting a pay rise of over 3%? The labour market is running hot, but some people doubt that wages are rising by more than 3% a year. That is probably because higher pay growth is being driven by the small share of workers switching... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The rise in unemployment in April was largely due to a jump in the labour force participation rate so the RBA may not feel pressured to ease policy immediately. But as unemployment remains high over... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Given that the improvement in Q1 was at least partly due to temporary factors, and that business surveys have remained uniformly downbeat, we suspect that the German economy will lose momentum again... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q1) The stagnation in wage growth in the first quarter underlines that the tighter labour market isn’t boosting cost pressures and supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) Despite the unemployment rate edging down to a fresh 45-year low, March’s figures painted a picture of a softening labour market. That is in line with our forecast for employment growth to ease this... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April’s 107,000 rise in employment blew the consensus out of the water and will encourage policymakers. But the increase was less impressive than it first seemed, with over half of the gain coming... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grey clouds on the horizon for the labour market Preparations for the moving target of Brexit day flattered the Q1 GDP figures and therefore could give way to a hangover in Q2. But this should just be a timing effect. How the labour market performs... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth not as weak as official data suggest The government admitted in January that sampling errors had resulted in wage growth being overstated in 2018. Unfortunately, the government has added to concerns over the accuracy of the wage data by... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The recent slump in wage growth reflects sampling changes as well as falling working hours. Given the current level of the unemployment rate, wages should be growing by around 1% and we expect a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 263,000 surge in payroll employment in April was much better than we had expected and kept the six-month trend above 200,000. Some of the details were less positive, with hours worked falling back... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data keep RBNZ on track to cut rates in May We expect the recent string of soft economic data will be enough for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 1.50% when it meets next week on Wednesday 8th May. Since the RBNZ shifted... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian wage growth to recover Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will probably pick up a little over the coming months as public sector salaries are raised and labour market conditions continue to tighten... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
