Japan Economics Weekly Are we any closer to a rate cut? This week brought more evidence that consumers rushed to bring forward spending ahead of the tax hike that took place on Tuesday. Meanwhile, capacity shortages are diminishing and firms are becoming... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus How low can the natural rate of unemployment go? A continued decline in the natural rate of unemployment over the past 15 years means that there is probably a little bit more slack in the labour market than indicated by the near-record low... 2nd October 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Natural unemployment rate probably still at 4% We still believe that the unemployment rate would have to fall to 4.0% to meet the RBA’s definition of full employment. With the actual unemployment rate now at 5.3% and rising, that means that the... 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) & Labour Market (Aug.) The latest Tankan survey shows that business conditions are holding up better than expected while the labour market remains very tight. And even though firms are turning more cautious about the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Labour Market (Aug.) Unemployment to rise to 2.5% by year-end The continued tightness of the labour market is reducing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to provide additional stimulus but we expect unemployment to rise... 1st October 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) Euro-zone employment growth looks set to slow over the rest of this year, and remain subdued in 2020. So we expect wage growth to weaken too, eventually prompting the ECB to loosen policy again. 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling global rates put pressure on central banks The Governors of both the RBNZ and the RBA argued this week that falling interest rates across the globe reflect structural as much as cyclical factors. Given that central banks elsewhere will... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a muted 125,000 in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut further…just not yet Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday 25 th September. However, the economy is clearly on... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August and we think a slowing in employment growth should drive the unemployment rate even higher, to 5.4% by the end of the year. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011 Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the... 17th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising unemployment heaps pressure on the Riksbank The sharp rise in Swedish unemployment in August serves as further evidence that the Riksbank is unlikely to be able to tighten policy later this year, as it forecasts. 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The increase in nominal hourly labour cost growth to 2.7% in Q2 masks significant differences between countries and is partly due to a reduction in hours worked, rather than higher wages. We continue... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
