Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The small pick-up in total labour cost growth to 2.4% y/y in Q1 was concentrated in the economies which have been hit hardest by the recent downturn and where the labour market has already begun to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market not as rosy as the RBA thought The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth not as strong as LFS suggests Annual wage growth according to the Labour Force Survey looks set to rise towards almost 4% in the coming months, but experience suggests that it is probably exaggerating the true strength of wages... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May is unlikely to be sustained as the softness in economic activity limits employment growth. We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3% before the end of the year. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market remained relatively robust in April, despite the drop in activity in the rest of the economy. While we do expect employment growth to slow over the rest of this year as the available... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The soft 75,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May wasn’t quite as bad as the dismal ADP employment reading earlier this week, but it is another sign that economic growth is slowing. On balance, we... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Although wage growth recovered in April, sampling distortions mean that it remains much weaker than what is implied by the tightness of labour market. But even once those distortions abate, a... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The drop in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in May was largely due to lower energy inflation and a reversal of Easter timing effects. But with wage growth likely to have peaked, we expect core... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading to Vilnius, inflation to drop back This week saw a fresh escalation of the tensions between Italy and the European Commission, and the publication of some fairly downbeat survey data. Combined with the very low inflation data we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market (Apr.) & Tokyo CPI (May) The rebound in industrial output in April coupled with upbeat forecasts for May suggests that the manufacturing sector will return to growth in Q2. However, we still expect the labour market to... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Say hello to our new payroll model Our new model points to a 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, although we anticipate a more pronounced slowdown in employment growth over the next few months. The unemployment rate is expected... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates may fall to 0.75% The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has telegraphed that it will cut interest rates to 1.25% in June and we think it will follow up with another 25bp cut in August. But we suspect that further easing... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
