Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) We think the slowdown in employment growth has further to run and suspect that the deterioration in the labour market will cause the unemployment rate to rise before the year is out. 18th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) The further slowdown in employment growth in May looks set to continue over the rest of this year as firms take a breath after the hiring spree in the first quarter. However, the labour market should... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wages kept falling in May even though the labour market remained very tight. That reflects sampling changes which have lowered the aggregate wage level. As those distortions start to fade, wage growth... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 224,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was much stronger than the consensus estimate of 160,000 and would seem to make a mockery of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (June) The 2,200 decline in employment in June is not a concern given that the economy created an average of 50,000 jobs per month over the first five months of this year. That torrid pace was never... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Labour markets succumbing to the gloom The past month has brought evidence of a continued slowdown in global growth and this weakness now seems to be spreading to labour markets. While advanced economy employment growth held up very well... 5th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will probably cut rates to 0.5% While the RBA lowered the cash rate to 1.0% at today’s meeting, it signalled that it won’t ease policy any further for now. However, we think that the Bank remains too optimistic about the outlook for... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) While the labour market remains tight, the drop in the job-to-applicant ratio is an early sign that it will slacken over coming months. Meanwhile, the jump in industrial production and capital goods... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market succumbing to economic slowdown Our model points to a subdued 125,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, suggesting that the labour market is succumbing to the broader slowdown in economic growth. The unemployment rate should remain... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will probably cut rates to 1.0% The RBNZ’s dovish tone supports our view that the Bank will cut rates again before the year is out. In fact, we now think the Bank will cut at its next meeting in August, and once more at its November... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s dovish shift embraced by markets Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rising wage growth won’t prevent policy loosening Wage growth has strengthened in several advanced economies despite the global economic slowdown. But, outside the UK, we do not expect this to prevent monetary policy loosening. Strong productivity... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
