Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) Overall wage growth was the weakest it has been in six months in November and the increase in the unemployment rate we are anticipating should ensure it will remain soft over the coming months. We are... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued solid gains in payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 in December and, with the incoming survey data improving again, jobs growth looks set to remain solid throughout 2020 as well. 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Nov.) The renewed drop in the unemployment rate in November reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates but we still expect the labour market to soften further. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Focus France labour market progress not due to reforms French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on overhauling France’s ailing labour market is long overdue. But while there are signs that the changes are starting to take effect, the labour market... 17th December 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The larger-than-expected rise in employment in October suggests the labour market has stabilised, so the Monetary Policy Committee will probably hold off cutting interest rates at Thursday’s meeting... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November’s slump in employment confirms that slowing GDP growth is spreading to the labour market. But with temporary factors exacerbating the fall, we don’t think it will concern policymakers too... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
