Filtered by Subscriptions: US Commercial Property Use setting US Commercial Property
Poor performance in the US and APAC property markets is set to drag on the global recovery over the next few years. While strong economic fundamentals argue for a material improvement in total returns in the US in the longer term, APAC won’t be as …
10th July 2025
We think office values have further to fall in all metros this year, but from 2026 we are expecting a recovery, with the southern markets showing the way. Led by Miami, those metros will see strong rent growth on the back of a decent recovery in …
The size and speed of the apartment market recovery will vary widely across the 17 metros we cover over our five-year forecast. Southern markets are generally set to outperform, backed by strong demand fundamentals and solid rental growth. Houston stands …
8th July 2025
The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as they adjust to the higher interest rate environment. …
2nd July 2025
Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will become more attractive places to visit. However, there is a …
1st July 2025
A downbeat view on new supply underpins our overall CRE outlook. In the short term, the risks skew firmly to the downside and recent economic disruption reinforces this, while further out tight financial conditions and ongoing cost and labor pressures …
25th June 2025
Overview – We think the short-term outlook for capital values is poor, with valuations looking stretched across all measures. This does not appear to be reflected in other forecasts, meaning our forecasts for the next two years remain significantly below …
24th June 2025
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
13th June 2025
On the back of the MSCI and NCREIF indices reporting rising capital values in Q1 and our significantly below-consensus forecast views for the next two years, we are again re-evaluating our forecasts. But however we look at valuations, they simply don’t …
11th June 2025
The recent court ruling on tariffs has put industrial demand back in the spotlight. Our view is that not enough has changed yet to make wholesale revisions to our short-term view and that, beyond this, healthy fundamentals should still be enough to pull …
4th June 2025
All-property capital values edged up by 0.1% in Q1, marking the first increase since mid-2022. Meanwhile, appraisal-based cap rates were flat after compressing by a slight margin in Q4 2024. We still believe appraisals have further to fall given the …
30th May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade (CIT) tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the Republican-stacked Supreme Court. The upside risks …
29th May 2025
The pandemic is firmly in our collective rear-view mirrors, but five years on, its effects continue to drive real estate performance differentials. We expect it to remain integral to driving winners and losers over the next five years and into the 2030s. …
28th May 2025
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) …
22nd May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
Commercial real estate investment climbed on a y/y basis in Q1, but recent surveys revealed that the unpredictability of policy changes and tariffs have dampened investor confidence. We expect this to weigh on Q2 activity, before continued improvement …
12th May 2025
The latest data from the Census Bureau show that regional and metro-level migration trends seen in the post-pandemic years persisted up to mid-2024. But the six major markets, along with other large metros like Miami, San Jose and Seattle, remained …
8th May 2025
Demand from Amazon has been a key driver of industrial fortunes over recent years, so the announcement of a new $15bn injection in the US was greeted warmly by market watchers. But, while this should help boost the sector longer term, a weak economic …
30th April 2025
The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) recorded a third consecutive quarter of positive total returns in Q1 2025, driven primarily by income. Although capital value growth turned positive, questions remain over whether appraisal-based valuations fully reflect …
28th April 2025
The Q1 RICS US commercial property survey reported steady investment sentiment. That is in line with our belief that the market is headed for an upturn, although the impact of new tariffs and the limited fall in interest rates mean that recovery will be …
25th April 2025
The pandemic-driven reduction in office-based footfall in city centres has weighed heavily on many urban environments, particularly in the US. But if cities can find ways to align incentives with other stakeholders and re-shape those environments to …
22nd April 2025
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2025) …
17th April 2025
More encouraging figures from the previously underperforming Midwest region suggest that it may be turning a corner. But while this may continue for several quarters more, there has not been enough improvement in the longer-term fundamentals to expect it …
9th April 2025
Last week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about how the pandemic will shape real estate into the 2030s. This note shares our answers to some of the most interesting questions raised, covering the pandemic’s …
8th April 2025
The apartment market is on track to recover over our five-year forecast, with new supply falling back sharply, while demand remains solid. However, the size and speed of recovery will differ widely by region. The largest vacancy rate declines – around …
7th April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend has largely reversed, with younger households valuing …
Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a more even retail performance with the worst-hit …
26th March 2025
The divergence between the struggling western metros and the better-performing southern metros remains the key story in office markets. That expectation is underpinned by both higher office utilization rates in southern metros and by their better …
25th March 2025
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
Despite numerous reports of firms rowing back on remote work, the evidence in the UK, US and the EU suggests that the share of jobs being done remotely has remained constant over the past couple of years. Admittedly, that may reflect relatively tight …
20th March 2025
The latest PREA consensus forecasts reveal a downward revision in total returns and capital value changes across most sectors, especially for offices and industrial. However, the consensus remains more optimistic than our projections. That said, the …
18th March 2025
Overview – Our new forecasts have been compiled in the most uncertain geoeconomic environment for a long time. But our firmly below-consensus expectations for US CRE are led by our view that nearly three years since the market peak, appraisals still do …
13th March 2025
Five years ago, we were downbeat about the immediate prospects for the largest city real estate markets, the so-called gateways, and that view has proved correct. But we also argued that this malaise would be short lived and strong fundamentals would be …
5th March 2025
The ‘race for space’ following the pandemic and shift to remote work is evident in both the UK and US, with houses becoming more expensive relative to flats. And that premium for larger homes looks set to endure. While there may be a further small …
4th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
Our updated analysis of the most attractive apartment markets for remote workers sees Austin nudge Nashville into second place after two years at the top of the table, with San Antonio climbing to third. On the other hand, Tampa fell from fourth to …
3rd March 2025
All-property values edged down by 0.1% in Q4 but the magnitude of decline narrowed. Appraisal-based cap rates also fell for the first time since mid-2022. However, we still believe appraisals have further to fall given the narrow spread to risk-free …
28th February 2025
Industrial property has been a clear winner over the past five years, with double-digit annual rental growth far outpacing expectations. However, as we predicted early on, supply has been responsive and, combined with a normalisation in demand, those …
25th February 2025
With Treasury yields rising in Q4 and property cap rates falling for the first time since mid-2022, our property valuation scores declined across the board. This supports our view that the recovery in 2025 will be weak. There remains a gap between …
20th February 2025
Hotels have seen a considerable turnaround in the past five years given the near-existential threat that the pandemic posed to the sector. Having bottomed last year, we expect values will grow in the coming years, with a pick-up in consumer spending …
It may seem odd that tech firms are likely to make further layoffs in 2025, while at the same time being one of the leading sectors for hiring intentions. But this broadly reflects cutbacks in less profitable areas to free up capital to invest in …
19th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
With return-to-office policies again hitting the headlines in the last week we are highlighting our recent notes on the outlook for remote work across the markets we forecast. In the first two of those, we pushed back against the idea that in the next few …
17th February 2025
Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while the sector has now re-priced and is set to perform …
12th February 2025
While 2024 was the first year in which inventory removals outpaced completions, we expect strong conversions activity to make it the first of many. Indeed, thanks to further declines in office occupancy and capital values over 2025-2030, we expect US …
10th February 2025
Five years on and the pandemic is continuing to impact real estate, influencing how we work, where we live and how we spend. But while some structural shifts are now better understood, there’s widespread uncertainty about how they are likely to develop …
9th May 2025
Even if mortgage rates drop back slightly and house price growth cools over the next few years as we expect, renting will remain the more cost-effective option, supporting apartment demand. Southeast and West Coast apartment markets stand to gain the …
6th February 2025
This is the first in a series of pieces that revisit our pandemic-era forecasts about the future of global real estate markets and cities and explore how they will evolve in the coming years. This dedicated page highlights key analysis from our earlier …
5th February 2025
