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US domestic migration trends to persist, but flows from abroad are at risk

The latest data from the Census Bureau show that regional and metro-level migration trends seen in the post-pandemic years persisted up to mid-2024. But the six major markets, along with other large metros like Miami, San Jose and Seattle, remained heavily reliant on flows from abroad to sustain population growth as Americans continue to migrate to more affordable cities. This poses a substantial risk to the outlook for those cities given the political climate and signs that overall immigration has already fallen sharply.

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