Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of whether more financial institutions run into trouble, …
20th March 2023
The direct impact on real estate of the collapse of two US regional banks over the weekend is likely to be relatively small. But we expect lending criteria to become more cautious in the short-term, which will weigh on the supply of real estate debt. …
16th March 2023
We have already outlined some different scenarios of how things might evolve from here and it is still possible that the situation calms down quickly. But in this Update , we think through how the more adverse of our scenarios might evolve. There are …
Tighter credit conditions add to headwinds facing construction Single-family housing starts continued their weak start to the year in February with a marginal month-on-month increase. While forward looking indicators appear to have turned a corner, …
Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove mortgage applications for home purchase lower and means …
14th March 2023
In this Update we examine the implications of affordability for house prices at the market level. Despite sunbelt markets seeing the strongest house price growth over the past couple of years, affordability looks most stretched in the West. This has been …
6th March 2023
Rise in mortgage rates cuts home demand Stronger-than-expected economic data led to a resurgence in mortgage rates in February, which put a stop to a tentative recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. This points to sales staying close to …
1st March 2023
House prices set for further falls in 2023 Despite a sixth consecutive month of falling house prices in December, affordability was still stretched even before the renewed rise in mortgage rates. As a result, it is likely that prices will continue to fall …
28th February 2023
New home sales continue to outperform wider market Price reductions and generous incentives offered by homebuilders helped new home sales continue to outperform the wider market in January. But a renewed rise in mortgage rates will weigh on new home …
24th February 2023
Sales fall, but at much slower pace The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough. But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will recover only …
21st February 2023
There are growing signs that stretched affordability is weighing on homeownership, particularly for the under 35s. We expect this to persist in the coming quarters. But there is a large pool of young adults waiting to purchase their first home once …
17th February 2023
Starts fall back in January despite warm weather Single-family housing starts dropped back in January and the permits data add weight to our view that more weakness is to come. We think that starts will edge lower in the coming months, before an increase …
16th February 2023
Overview – Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past standards, especially in the first half of …
10th February 2023
We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and apartment demand to soften. We have argued since mid-2022 that …
9th February 2023
Falling mortgage rates lift housing demand from trough The sharp rise in mortgage applications in January adds to the evidence that housing demand has bottomed out. As mortgage rates continue to trend lower and house prices fall a further 6%, we expect …
1st February 2023
Prices down 2.5% from peak and further falls to come A fifth consecutive monthly decline in house prices in November left them down 2.5% from their peak in June on the Case-Shiller index. We think that prices will fall by a further 6% this year before …
31st January 2023
Our forecasts for house prices, mortgage rates and incomes over the next few years mean affordability will remain relatively stretched compared with the past 15 years. But there is good reason to think that mortgage payments as a share of income were …
27th January 2023
Resilient new home sales set for gradual recovery The small rise in new home sales in December confirmed that the new build sector is holding up better than the wider market. This likely reflects builders offering generous incentives to attract buyers as …
26th January 2023
Sales continue to fall, but end is in sight The modest fall in existing home sales in December suggests the impact of the spike in mortgage rates last year has largely washed through. The recent fall in mortgage rates has helped to lift homebuyer …
20th January 2023
Starts hold up better than expected Single-family housing starts surprised on the upside in December. But it is too soon to call the bottom of the market. Indeed, another substantial fall in permits means we think starts are set to resume their downward …
19th January 2023
There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise in homebuyer sentiment, albeit from a record low. …
12th January 2023
Our updated remote worker metro ranking shows some important changes since the end of the pandemic, though the winners remain in the South. Nashville tops the table, having climbed seven places. Tucson and Memphis also climb into the top 10, with …
11th January 2023
A large part of the real estate sector’s carbon footprint is related to electricity production and so will shrink over time as the use of renewables continues to expand. The biggest challenges to reducing property sector emissions will be in emerging …
9th January 2023
While we expect mortgage rates will fall to 5.75% by end-2023, affordability will remain stretched. Alongside a weakening economy and falling house prices that will weigh on housing market activity. Indeed, we think 2023 will be the worst year for sales …
6th January 2023
Lending weak, but no longer falling A second consecutive increase in home purchase applications in December suggests that declining mortgage rates have allowed buyer demand to bottom out. Indeed, as we expect mortgage rates to continue to fall, the …
4th January 2023
Click here to read the full report. We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of the markets with the …
29th December 2022
New home sales increase despite jump in mortgage rates New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We …
23rd December 2022
Spike in mortgage rates feeds through to sales Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to fall …
21st December 2022
Weak new home demand weighs on starts Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November as weak new home demand weighed on homebuilder confidence. We expect this to push starts down to a trough of 650,000 annualised in the coming months, before a …
20th December 2022
This is part of a series of reports outlining our key macro and market calls for 2023. Click here to view the full series. Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But …
15th December 2022
A fall in mortgage rates from 20-year highs supported the first rise in home purchase demand in eight months in November. Given that mortgage rates are likely to continue to trend lower from here, sales should soon bottom out. But the big picture is …
14th December 2022
The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so, affordability pressures mean that current rental …
8th December 2022
Housing demand rises for first time since March A fall in mortgage rates from recent 20-year highs helped home purchase applications rise for the first time in eight months in November. However, while we expect mortgage rates to continue to trend lower …
7th December 2022
Our forecast for a drop in house prices means renting looks a better option than buying for any holding period under 10 years. While this will encourage some potential buyers to rent instead, we doubt it will provide much support to the rental market …
2nd December 2022
Third consecutive month of falling prices, and counting A deterioration in affordability helped the Case-Shiller house price index to fall for the third consecutive month in September. The FHFA reported a small rise in prices, but we think more falls are …
29th November 2022
Banks are likely to tighten credit conditions over the next year to protect themselves from house price falls. But their more cautious approach to lending in this cycle means we don’t think they will have to tighten conditions as significantly as in …
23rd November 2022
Sales level off, but leading indicators point to declines New home sales have levelled off in recent months, but leading indicators support our view that sales will fall a little further by the end of the year. Looking ahead, we expect stretched …
Rising mortgage rates cut sales A renewed rise in mortgage rates led to the largest month-on-month decline in existing home sales since February. As the impact of higher rates continues to feed through in the coming months, we expect sales to fall further …
18th November 2022
Weak builder confidence points to further declines in starts Single-family starts fell to 855,000 annualised in October which was much stronger than what was implied by the low level of homebuilder confidence. We expect further declines in new home sales …
17th November 2022
The small increase in vacancy in Q3 supports our view that the rental market is turning a corner and makes us increasingly confident in our call that rents will fall next year. Conditions remain tighter in the homeowner market. But higher interest rates …
16th November 2022
Overview – We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into a mild recession in 2023, sales and …
8th November 2022
Mortgage applications point to further falls in sales On the back of a rise in mortgage rates to above 7%, home purchase applications took another step down in October. That points to further declines in home sales in the coming months. With mortgage …
2nd November 2022
The jump in multifamily housing starts in the first half of 2022 implies a surge in completions over the next couple of years to a multi-decade high. But while rental demand is now moderating, the continued lack of homes for sale means we doubt it will …
31st October 2022
Leading indicators suggest sales have further to fall The 10.9% m/m fall in new home sales in September partly reversed last month’s surprise jump. But they are still out of lockstep with both buyer traffic and mortgage applications. Those indicators …
26th October 2022
House price falls gain momentum Both Case-Shiller and the FHFA reported an acceleration in month-on-month house price falls in August. With mortgage rates rising to a 20-year high in October and the economy set to enter a recession, we expect house …
25th October 2022
Relentless fall in sales continues The 1.5% m/m fall in existing home sales in September showed that rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on housing market activity. Given the recent step-down in mortgage applications as mortgage rates approached …
20th October 2022
Housing starts back on a downward trajectory September’s decline in starts supports our view that last month’s increase was a one-off and starts will fall further in the coming months. We expect the rise in mortgage rates to near 7% to continue to weigh …
19th October 2022
A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as a share of median income rose to 26% in September. …
14th October 2022
Central banks have the tools to deal with liquidity crises arising from rising interest rates and falling asset prices. Instead, the bigger threat is that higher interest rates produce large and simultaneous falls in asset prices that threaten the …
11th October 2022
Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates, a weaker economy and prices falling earlier than expected, we have cut our forecast and now expect a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of 8%, down from our previous view that prices would drop by 5%. That …
6th October 2022
