Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
New home sales remain weak New home sales were essentially unchanged in June after their 15% slump the month before, not helped by mortgage rates which remained stubbornly high at around 7%. So far in July, borrowing costs have declined and currently sit …
24th July 2024
Spike in rates takes sales to 13-year low The sharp rise in mortgage rates in April was the catalyst for existing home sales falling to a 13-year low in June. However, borrowing costs have since receded and timelier indicators of activity such as mortgage …
23rd July 2024
Multi-family driven increase in housing starts The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary. …
17th July 2024
Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability significantly stretched in the West, we do not expect to see a …
16th July 2024
Overview – We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that they will still be a muted 4.8 million even …
Despite rising in June, mortgage applications consistent with weak home sales The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing …
3rd July 2024
Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted in response to falling apartment values and higher …
2nd July 2024
New home sales fall to six-month low The 11.3% m/m decline in new home sales in May will steal all the headlines, but it largely reflected a significant upward revision to the April sales number, leaving us somewhat confused at the overall health of the …
26th June 2024
Price inflation slows for first time in almost a year The second consecutive moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in April could be a sign that the increase in home listings this year has cooled the market. We think rising supply will eventually be …
25th June 2024
Sales barely budge in May Existing home sales were essentially flat in May which is somewhat puzzling given that pending home sales and home purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month, both fell meaningfully in April. Either way, …
21st June 2024
Housing starts fall to lowest level since June 2020 The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year. The 5.5% m/m decline in housing starts was driven by …
20th June 2024
Mortgage applications fall to three-month low The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the increase …
5th June 2024
House prices March on The solid 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in March suggests that competition among buyers for the limited number of second-hand homes on the market remains strong. We expect that to continue for the rest of the year, consistent with …
28th May 2024
New home sales fall in April due to high mortgage rates The spike in mortgage rates to 7.3% in April caused a sizeable drop in new home sales, as buyers decided to wait for a chance of getting a lower rate. We think this will partly reverse in May as …
23rd May 2024
Existing home sales slide in April, with further falls likely ahead The drop in existing home sales in April will be followed up by further falls in the coming months, supporting our view that the recovery in transactions we expect this year will be …
22nd May 2024
The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow again. Zillow reports that apartment rents continued to …
21st May 2024
Weaker than expected recovery in housing starts The modest rebound in housing starts in April confirmed that the slump the month before was a weather-related blip. But the recovery wasn’t as strong as we had anticipated, which potentially casts some doubt …
16th May 2024
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
Mortgage rates climbed back above 7% last month but we think that trend will soon reverse, with rates falling to 6.5% by year-end. Lower borrowing costs will draw more mortgaged buyers into the market. But supply will remain tight as the fall in mortgage …
14th May 2024
Lawmakers' current efforts to restrict institutional buying of single-family homes won't put downward pressure on house prices if enacted, as their market share is minimal. Investors ramped up buying of homes in 2021-22, a trend that has raised concerns …
9th May 2024
Rising mortgage rates extend the slump in demand The small rebound in mortgage demand in March proved short-lived, as higher borrowing costs caused home purchase mortgage applications to drop 2.3% m/m in April. But the 10-year Treasury yield’s recent …
8th May 2024
Momentum in house prices continues The substantial shortage of existing homes for sale fueled a robust 0.4% m/m rise in house prices in February, consistent with our above-consensus call that house price growth will end 2024 at 5% y/y. The increase in the …
30th April 2024
A later start to Fed rate cuts than we anticipated will push the fall in mortgage rates and recovery in activity into the second half of the year. But as we think that the Fed Funds rate will eventually be cut by more than markets have currently priced …
25th April 2024
Largest increase in new home sales in over a year The large uptick in new home sales in March is consistent with our above-consensus prediction that sales of new homes will climb to 750,000 by year end. The 8.8% rise in new home sales in March took them …
23rd April 2024
Even if mortgage rates fall to 6.5% this year as we expect, homeowners will still be discouraged from listing their home, ensuring supply remains tight. At the same time, mortgaged buyer demand should pick-up as affordability improves. That will drive …
18th April 2024
Existing home sales drop back due to higher mortgage rates The fall in existing home sales in March was triggered by mortgage rates climbing back above 7% the month before. Even so, transactions remain above the trough at the end of last year, consistent …
Largest decline in housing starts since April 2020 Housing starts weren’t able to build on the strong performance of the previous month in March, falling by the largest monthly amount since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Although some of …
16th April 2024
We think that reports of a wave of new resale supply coming onto the market are overblown. While the number of homes being listed for sale has increased compared to last year, it is still low by historical standards, as mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ continues …
9th April 2024
Note: We’ll be covering our views on residential market winners and losers in both the for-sale and rental markets in a Drop-In Tuesday 16th April 1100 EDT/1600 BST . Register here for the 20-minute session. We expect a surge in completions and a …
4th April 2024
Mortgage rates temporarily drop below 7%, helping demand recover Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates …
3rd April 2024
House price growth reaccelerates in January The fairly large gain in house prices in January points to a rebound in price growth driven by the fall in mortgage rates towards the end of last year. Although its early in the year, today’s data fit with our …
26th March 2024
Note: We’ll be covering our views on residential market winners and losers in both the for-sale and rental markets in a Drop-In Tuesday 16th April 1100 EST/1600 BST . Register here for the 20-minute session. As mortgage rates fall, we think the …
25th March 2024
New home sales disappoint in February February’s tiny drop in new home sales cut short what appeared to be the beginning of a recovery in recent months. Even though the drop was extremely small, it still potentially casts some doubt over our upbeat new …
Existing home sales accelerate despite higher mortgage rates Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the …
21st March 2024
Housing starts rebound in February The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had anticipated. After falling …
19th March 2024
The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger, whereas prices in most major and midwestern metros have …
18th March 2024
Our updated remote worker preference scores again highlight Nashville as the most attractive metro for remote workers, while San Jose is the least attractive. The winners continue to be predominantly in the South, reflecting relatively low living costs …
13th March 2024
Mortgage rates back above 7% stifle demand recovery February’s mortgage applications data show rising mortgage rates put an end to what had been the start of a fairly promising recovery, following the low for applications in October 2023. We think this is …
6th March 2024
Overview – Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the next few years. That will keep a lid on …
5th March 2024
House price data playing catch up Another small rise in house prices in December suggests the extremely backward-looking data are still capturing a slowdown in price growth following the October peak in mortgage rates. That’s mainly due to the fact …
27th February 2024
Rebound in new home sales slightly slower than we were anticipating The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were …
26th February 2024
Lower mortgage rates have the desired effect on sales, but it won’t last The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in …
22nd February 2024
Following the huge fall in multi-family starts in January, we suspect the apartment sector will continue to be a drag on new development this year. But construction of single-family dwellings will remain strong. In January, housing starts suffered their …
19th February 2024
Multi-family starts slump to lowest level since 2020 Housing starts fell by the largest amount since April 2020 in January, led by a huge drop in multi-family starts. We suspect the multi-family sector will continue to be a drag on new development this …
16th February 2024
We survey 12 major advanced economy housing markets to understand why house price falls have been small despite high starting points and sharp increases in mortgage rates. We then use this information to ascertain whether the correction in house prices is …
14th February 2024
The recent fall in the homeownership rate revealed by the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) is unlikely to reverse given still-high mortgage costs. The survey also provided more evidence in support of our view that the homeowner market will remain tight this …
8th February 2024
Mortgage demand continues to recover The average mortgage rate in January was unchanged from the month before, but that didn’t prevent mortgage applications for home purchase rising for a third consecutive month. And with interest rates set to resume …
7th February 2024
We think the recent divergence between the BLS measure of apartment rents and other sources is due to reliability issues with the former, which we expect will be revised higher in future releases. Therefore, while it currently points to a downside risk to …
31st January 2024
Surprise slowdown in house prices in November The marked slowdown in house price growth in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier. The 0.2% m/m rise in the seasonally adjusted national …
30th January 2024
New home sales regain some momentum New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak. The 8.0% m/m increase in seasonally adjusted new home …
25th January 2024
