Assessing the risks to single-family home construction

Fears that single-family housing starts are on the verge of collapse because of the large buildup of new homes for sale are overblown. The accumulation largely reflects smaller private builders struggling to shift inventory, unlike their publicly-listed competitors, which can be a lot more flexible on price and lending terms. We expect housing starts to remain stable over the next few months, before gradually tailing off as tariffs weigh on new development.