Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Europe Economics Use setting Emerging Europe Economics
Economy stabilising Russia’s economy appeared to stabilise in Q3 as the 4% y/y contraction in GDP reported by Rosstat today is consistent with output rising marginally in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms. That said, there’s little sign in the latest monthly …
16th November 2022
Economy now entering slower growth The slowdown in GDP growth in Israel in Q3, to 2.1% q/q annualised, was in line with expectations as private consumption contracted and net trade exerted a drag. We think Israel’s economy will hold up better than other …
A mixed performance in Q3, but recessions on the horizon Q3 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe were generally a bit better than we had expected, but pockets of weakness were beginning to emerge as the Czech and Hungarian economies both …
15th November 2022
A slowdown in Q3 Turkish activity data for September show that industrial production has come under more pressure while retail sales have continued their remarkable resilience in the face of high inflation. On balance, we think that GDP growth slowed from …
11th November 2022
Inflation pressures remain soft Inflation in Russia fell more sharply than expected in October, to 12.6% y/y, but this won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle as policymakers are concerned about inflation risks in the …
9th November 2022
Inflation pressures show little sign of easing Inflation in Turkey rose to 85.5% y/y in October due to a broad-based strengthening of price pressures. Even so, the central bank will remain under pressure from President Erdogan for looser policy and …
3rd November 2022
Economy lacking momentum There were broad-based falls in Russian industrial production and retail sales in September. The economy may have narrowly avoided another q/q contraction in GDP in Q3 as a whole, but there’s clearly no momentum in the economy …
2nd November 2022
The 0.4% q/q contraction in Czech GDP in Q3 provides the first clear sign that the economy as a whole is buckling. We think the economy is now in a recession which will last until early next year. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMIs for October underscore …
1st November 2022
Sentiment remains depressed as headwinds mount The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in October, but the big picture is that sentiment in most countries is very depressed which supports our view that the …
28th October 2022
Recession just around the corner September’s industrial production and retail sales figures out of Poland showed that activity continued to recover last month. Even so, it may be touch-and-go as to whether Poland’s economy was already in a technical …
21st October 2022
A slowdown in Q3 The latest activity data show that retail sales and industrial production bounced back in Turkey in August, but this follows a period of softness and industry is on track for a large quarterly contraction in Q3 as a whole. We think GDP …
12th October 2022
Returning to m/m inflation Inflation continued to fall in Russia in September, to 13.7% y/y, but at a much slower rate than in previous months. The recent period of strong disinflation is coming to an end and the central bank is likely to scale back the …
7th October 2022
Industry remains in contraction territory Manufacturing PMIs for September were a mixed bag, but continued to paint a weak picture of industrial activity in Turkey, Czechia and Poland in Q3. In contrast, the downturn in Russian industry appears to have …
3rd October 2022
Further fall in sentiment points to regional recession The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September out of Central and Eastern Europe revealed a further decline and suggest to us that the region as a whole is at the start of a recession. …
29th September 2022
Economy bottoming out, but no recovery in sight Russia’s industrial production and retail sales figures for August suggest that the downturn has bottomed out, but activity is only levelling off and a sustained recovery looks some way off. The strong 1.2% …
28th September 2022
Signs of recovery after difficult Q2 The industrial production and retail sales figures for Poland for August show that economic activity has started to recover after suffering contractions in Q2. But this recovery is unlikely to be sustained heading into …
21st September 2022
Signs of softening emerging Turkey’s activity figures for July showed m/m declines in both industrial production and retail sales and suggest that the period of strong growth during the summer may be coming to an end. And with President Erdogan pressuring …
13th September 2022
Inflation showing no sign of turning a corner Inflation continued to fall sharply in Russia in August, to 14.3% y/y, and there’s little standing in the way of another interest rate cut by the central bank next week. We expect a 50bp reduction to 7.50%. …
9th September 2022
Inflation surpasses 80% milestone Inflation hit 80.2% y/y in Turkey in August, breaching 80% for the first time since 1998. Even so, the central bank is likely to remain beholden to President Erdogan’s wishes for looser policy and it seems that further …
5th September 2022
Mixed bag, but contractions in industry likely in Q3 Manufacturing PMIs for August were a mixed bag, with further signs that Russian industry is recovering while PMIs in Turkey, Poland and Czechia remained weak and are consistent with contractions in …
1st September 2022
Early signs of economy stabilising Russia’s industrial production and retail sales figures for July were stronger than expected and provide the first tangible evidence that the downturn in the economy is bottoming out. Industrial production posted an …
31st August 2022
Strong growth adds to inflation and external risks Turkey’s economy posted another robust quarter of growth in Q2, with GDP rising by 2.1% q/q, as stronger consumption and exports more than offset weaker investment. But strong growth is merely adding to …
Sentiment falls again as growth momentum evaporates The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe for August continued the trend in recent months of very weak data releases for the region and point to a sharp slowdown in GDP growth …
30th August 2022
Stabilisation in July, but strong rebound unlikely in the months ahead July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the …
22nd August 2022
Economy comes roaring back The stronger-than-expected 6.8% q/q annualised expansion in Israel GDP in Q2 confirms that the Q1 contraction was just a blip. Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation figures for July, the risks are …
16th August 2022
Sanctions take their toll with historic fall in GDP Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in Q2, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms – a much better performance than analysts had expected and than had seemed likely a few months ago. …
12th August 2022
Growth remained strong in Q2 Turkey’s activity figures for June painted a mixed picture, with industrial production continuing to post solid growth but retail sales suffering a fresh knock. The bigger picture, however, is that the economy appears to have …
Inflation pressures nowhere to be seen Russia’s month-on-month deflation deepened in July as consumer prices fell by a larger-than-expected 0.4% m/m (in y/y terms, the headline rate eased to 15.1%). The disinflationary impact of the strong ruble is likely …
10th August 2022
Inflation close to a peak, but will remain high The modest rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 79.6% y/y in July suggests that inflation is nearing a peak, but it will remain close to these very high rates for several more months and will be slow …
3rd August 2022
PMIs point toward a contraction in industry Manufacturing PMIs for July fell to levels consistent with contractions in industrial production in Q3, with the exception of in Russia, where the downturn in manufacturing seems to have stabilised. There was an …
1st August 2022
Weakness in Q2, contraction likely in Q3 The 0.2% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q2 beat the consensus expectation for a small contraction, but it was roughly in line with what we had expected, and still marked a sharp slowdown in growth from Q1. We think …
29th July 2022
Sentiment falls further, but price pressures show signs of easing The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe showed declines across the region and across sectors in July, supporting our view that economies in the region are in …
28th July 2022
Data pointing to a 9% contraction in Q2 The Russian industrial production figures for June were surprisingly strong, which likely reflects a pick-up in oil production. But retail sales remain depressed and show no sign of a turnaround. Our provisional …
27th July 2022
Economy now gripped in a slowdown The weak set of Polish industrial production and retail sales figures for June provide the strongest evidence yet that the economy is in the midst of a sharp slowdown. It is very likely that GDP contracted in q/q terms in …
21st July 2022
Activity surpassing pre-currency crisis levels Turkey’s activity figures for May show that industrial production and retail sales have now both surpassed their highs from late-2021 despite the weight of sky-high inflation. With strong demand and high …
14th July 2022
Inflation continues to drop back The further decline in Russia’s headline inflation rate to 15.9% y/y in June confirms that inflation has already passed its peak and we expect price pressures to ease further over the coming months. This is likely to …
8th July 2022
Further signs of manufacturing weakness Manufacturing PMIs for June showed further weakness across the region with the exception of Russia, which seems to have benefitted from a shift from imports toward domestic production. There were some encouraging …
1st July 2022
Clearer signs that the economy has stabilised The latest Russian data for May suggest that activity, having declined sharply after Western sanctions were imposed in March, has started to stabilise. Some sectors of manufacturing have benefited from a shift …
29th June 2022
Sharp fall in sentiment as recovery starts to slow The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe showed broad-based declines in sentiment across the region and across sectors in June to levels not seen in a year. Economic activity …
Economy’s robust performance continues Turkey’s activity figures for April suggest that the economy has held up well since last year’s currency crisis, but robust activity has added to inflation pressures and contributed to the widening of the current …
13th June 2022
Signs that inflation has already peaked The sharp fall in Russian inflation in May to 17.1% y/y suggests that inflation may have already peaked and price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months. This will give the central bank room to …
8th June 2022
Sanctions take their toll as activity falls sharply in April The April activity data for Russia released today show that the imposition of Western sanctions has caused a sharp fall in oil and gas production, a plunge in motor vehicles output and resulted …
1st June 2022
Weak external demand and war in Ukraine take their toll Manufacturing PMIs for May showed that weaker external demand weighed on export orders in Emerging Europe, and that spillovers from the war in Ukraine hit output. There were some signs of improvement …
Resilient Q1, but economy to struggle over rest of 2022 Turkey’s economy performed better than expected in Q1, with GDP rising by 1.2% q/q, as the boost to net trade from the lira’s collapse late last year more than offset the blow to household spending …
31st May 2022
Sentiment a mixed bag in May The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in May, but there were some encouraging signs that industrial sentiment has started to improve and that price pressures may be nearing a …
30th May 2022
Soft start to Q2 April’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q2 and the effects of the war in Ukraine will remain a key headwind over the coming months. That said, we think Poland will avoid a contraction and …
23rd May 2022
Q1 resilience to be followed by steep downturn in Q2 The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western …
18th May 2022
Overheating in Q1 Q1 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe smashed expectations in Poland, Romania and Hungary and suggest that their economies were running hot at the start of the year. The war in Ukraine will dampen activity in Q2, but demand is …
17th May 2022
Q1 contraction not a sign of weakness The 1.6% q/q annualised contraction in Q1 GDP in Israel was weaker than analysts expected, but it was more or less in line with our forecast and doesn’t change the bigger picture that Israel’s economy is operating in …
16th May 2022
Monthly price increases slow sharply as ruble appreciates Russian inflation came in broadly as expected in April, rising from 16.7% y/y to a two-decade high of 17.8% y/y and it looks like further increases in the coming months will be modest. This will …
13th May 2022