Russia’s economy appeared to stabilise in Q3 as the 4% y/y contraction in GDP reported by Rosstat today is consistent with output rising marginally in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms. That said, there’s little sign in the latest monthly data of a sustained recovery taking hold and we think the downturn may yet deepen in Q4 and Q1 as the recent mobilisation of reservists and the EU oil embargo take their toll.
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