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Singapore circuit breaker 2.0 Singapore has announced several tough new measures to contain a sudden jump in COVID-19 infections. The restrictions will cause economic activity to drop in the near term, but the falls should be relatively small and GDP …
14th May 2021
Trouble in Thailand The outlook for Thailand’s economy has gone from bad to worse, with a sudden jump in COVID-19 cases leading to the introduction of new virus restrictions . The high-frequency mobility data that we track from Google and Apple point to a …
7th May 2021
Private consumption is Korea’s weak spot Korea’s Q1 GDP data showed that while output surpassed its pre-pandemic level last quarter, private consumption remained depressed. Consumer spending was still almost 6% lower than in the final quarter of 2019, …
30th April 2021
HK-Singapore travel bubble postponed again The decision to postpone the announcement of the Hong Kong-Singapore travel bubble will have no direct implications for either economy, but the delays in getting the scheme off the ground demonstrate how …
23rd April 2021
What’s good for TSMC, is good for Taiwan Booming demand for semiconductors is prompting us to raise our Taiwan growth forecast for this year from 4.5% to 5.0%. This is well above the consensus of just 4.2%. Exports hit a record high level in March, with …
16th April 2021
Korean ruling party days look numbered Wednesday’s landslide defeat for President Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) in key mayoral elections in Korea suggest that it faces an uphill battle to retain the presidency in next year’s vote. Defeat next year would …
9th April 2021
Korean activity data point to pick-up in growth The recent activity data point to an acceleration in Korean GDP growth in the first quarter. March trade data, released this morning, suggest that exporters had their strongest quarter since 2018. In …
1st April 2021
Singapore: limited boost from latest reopening Singapore announced a further loosening of containment measures this week, but they are unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy. The country looks on the verge of eradicating COVID-19. There has …
26th March 2021
Labour market blip in Korea reverses The sharp drop in Korean unemployment last month suggests that the economy is bouncing back following a fall in COVID-19 infections and the easing of containment measures. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, more than …
19th March 2021
Cutting our forecasts for the Philippines We are lowering our 2021 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines due to the worsening virus situation and the recent deterioration in the economic data. The 7-day average of new infections has risen to its highest …
12th March 2021
Korea keeps fiscal taps running Korea today announced that it was stepping up its support for the economy with a new supplementary budget worth 15trn won (around 0.8% of GDP). The stimulus comes mostly in the form of relief measures for businesses which …
5th March 2021
Financial market sell-off continues The sell-off in Asian financial markets gathered pace today, with equities and currencies both falling. The drops were triggered by the rise in government bond yields in the US on the back of concerns that President …
26th February 2021
The Asian century We recently launched our new service, The Long Run , which includes detailed forecasts out to 2050 for 58 economies. They reveal a non-consensus view that China will not be the biggest economy in 2050. But Asia nonetheless dominates. …
19th February 2021
Growing headwinds facing Thailand Thailand’s economy has been staging a gradual recovery from the crisis, with GDP figures due on Monday likely to show the economy contracted by around 5.5% y/y last quarter, compared with a decline of 6.6% in Q3. (See …
10th February 2021
Malaysia’s recovery in reverse Malaysian GDP figures, due to be released on Thursday, are likely to show a sharp slowdown in the recovery in the final quarter of last year. (See our data preview below for details.) The recovery is likely to go into …
5th February 2021
More evidence of resilience from Korea The latest batch of activity data from Korea indicate the economy held up well in December and suggest that companies are learning to cope better with new COVID-19 restrictions. This week’s Q4 GDP figures revealed …
29th January 2021
Indonesia opening for business The near-term outlook for Indonesia’s economy is poor. A failure to contain the coronavirus means that the economic recovery is likely to be slow and fitful. But long-term economic prospects received a boost this week with …
22nd January 2021
Indonesia’s novel vaccine strategy Indonesia’s vaccination campaign got underway earlier this week amid surging cases of COVID-19 across the country. Whereas most countries are prioritising the elderly and vulnerable in vaccination rollouts, Indonesia has …
15th January 2021
Vietnam: outperformance continues GDP figures for Vietnam should always be treated with caution, but data released before New Year show that the economy grew by an impressive 4.5% y/y in the final quarter of 2020. This brought growth for the year to 2.9%, …
8th January 2021
Fiscal policy to stay supportive, except in Sri Lanka Most countries in Asia came into this year with a relatively low level of government debt. They are generally better placed than other emerging markets to cope with the sharp increases due to COVID-19. …
18th December 2020
On hold on Thursday, and beyond Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) looks all but certain to leave its main policy rate unchanged at its current all-time low of 1.125% at its meeting on Thursday. With the economy performing well, there is a plausible argument …
11th December 2020
Faster recovery now likely The recent good news on vaccine development means that countries in Emerging Asia are likely to start inoculating their populations sooner than we had previously envisaged. As we outlined in a recent Update , an effective …
4th December 2020
How will the BoK respond to rising property prices Rising property prices in Korea appear to be causing some concern at the central bank, with the BoK governor on Thursday again noting that “housing prices have continued to increase in all parts of the …
27th November 2020
More encouraging vaccine news The past week has brought more positive developments on the vaccine front, with the latest news from AstraZeneca and Pfizer providing a further boost to regional stock markets. It now seems likely that at least one vaccine …
20th November 2020
BSP under pressure to cut The weakness of the recovery in the Philippines means that the central bank (BSP) is likely to lower interest rates at next Thursday’s scheduled meeting. Third quarter GDP figures published earlier this week confirm that the …
12th November 2020
Malaysia 2021 Budget Malaysia’s 2021 budget, which was tabled before parliament today, reveals that the government is planning to keep fiscal policy much looser than we had originally expected. Government spending is projected to increase by a further …
6th November 2020
Recent data add weight to upbeat forecasts Activity data released today suggest that Korea’s economy ended last quarter on a strong note and that the provisional estimate of Q3 GDP is likely to be revised up. The first estimate of Q3 GDP – which is …
30th October 2020
Economies rebounding, but output remains weak National accounts data due to be published over the next few weeks will show that many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP in the third quarter as they reopened from strict lockdowns. (See …
23rd October 2020
Political wrangling compounding COVID risks Malaysia’s economy has rebounded rapidly from the crisis. Second quarter national accounts data show that by the end of June the economy was just 3.2% smaller than it was a year ago. (See here .) Recent upbeat …
16th October 2020
Surge in Vietnam’s exports puts it in danger Vietnam has so far emerged as the biggest winner of the US-China trade war, as tariffs on goods from China have led US importers to switch suppliers. Vietnam’s exports to the US have doubled since the start of …
9th October 2020
Fiscal policy to remain supportive in Indonesia Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit. Earlier this …
2nd October 2020
Lacklustre fiscal support in the Philippines Inadequate fiscal support is holding back growth in the Philippines and, unless this improves, the recovery will continue to underwhelm. August data show that fiscal spending remained subdued. It grew by just …
25th September 2020
Peso to hold up in months ahead The Philippine peso has been the best performing currency in Emerging Asia so far this year (see Chart 1.) and is now at its highest level against the US dollar since late 2016. We expect the peso to strengthen further over …
18th September 2020
Second wave fears ease The recent jump in coronavirus cases in Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnam had a negative impact on each economy, with hospitality sectors bearing the brunt of the damage. But with infection numbers now falling again and restrictions …
11th September 2020
Slow recovery in the Philippines A long and strict lockdown meant the Philippines suffered one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region in the second quarter. (See here .) The most recent data suggest that it is also experiencing one of the slowest …
4th September 2020
QE is edging closer The Bank of Korea (BoK) surprised no one by keeping rates on hold at 0.5% this week. (See here .) Less expected was Governor Lee’s assertion that the Bank has “room for a rate cut”. We’ve now pencilled in a further 25bp cut to 0.25% in …
28th August 2020
Lowering our GDP forecasts for Korea A growing second wave of infections in Korea is likely to slow the economic recovery. Korea reported 324 new cases a day on Friday, the highest since early March. (See Chart 1.) Newly confirmed infections have now been …
21st August 2020
Rapid rebound in Malaysia The collapse in Malaysian GDP in the second quarter that was reported earlier today generated all the headlines, but what was more revealing about the GDP release is how quickly the economy is bouncing back. The economy …
14th August 2020
Singapore bouncing back The second and final estimate of second quarter GDP for Singapore, due to be published on Tuesday, will confirm that the economy suffered a historic slump last quarter. A strict lockdown, a fall in exports and a collapse in visitor …
7th August 2020
New outbreak in Vietnam After going 100 days without a single case of community transmission, over 40 new coronavirus infections have been reported in Vietnam over the past week. The jump puts the country’s economic recovery at risk. The outbreak is …
30th July 2020
Time to worry about the rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has been by far the most volatile currency in the region since the start of the year. It slumped by nearly 20% against the US dollar at the start of the crisis, before bouncing back strongly. However, …
24th July 2020
What will the Q2 GDP figures show in Korea? Korea avoided the need for a full lockdown and the GDP figures due on Thursday should show that economic activity held up relatively well last quarter as a result. We have pencilled in a contraction of “only” …
17th July 2020
Supporting the economy through the crisis The main priority for Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which is certain to win tomorrow’s general election, is ensuring a strong recovery from the crisis. There are good reasons to expect a rapid …
9th July 2020
Thailand – tourism not the only worry Despite having successfully contained the virus, which has allowed daily life in Thailand to return to normal quicker than in many places, the country is still set to be one of the worst-hit in the region this year, …
3rd July 2020
Taiwan continuing to perform well Data published over the past week provide further evidence that Taiwan’s economy is continuing to hold up extremely well. Industrial production grew 1.5% y/y in May, and while this was down from 4.2% the month before, it …
26th June 2020
Will exports continue to defy gravity? Given the collapse in global demand, the relative strength of Asian exports has come as something of a surprise. We estimate that Asian exports are down by around 15% y/y, which is much less than the 40-50% declines …
19th June 2020
Re-opening to foreign tourists Tourism across emerging Asia has been destroyed by the coronavirus pandemic. In Thailand, where spending by foreign tourists was the equivalent of around 10% of GDP before the crisis, all foreign visitors have been banned …
12th June 2020
Dreadful economic data from the Philippines Labour market and industrial production data released today for the Philippines confirm that output collapsed in April. With the lockdown being eased only gradually, the recovery in the Philippines is lagging …
5th June 2020
Bumps in the recovery More and more countries across the region have been relaxing lockdowns over recent weeks, and a recovery in economic activity now seems to be underway. However, with restrictions being relaxed, new cases have started to flare up. …
29th May 2020
Bank of Korea to get unconventional The Bank of Korea is likely to cut its policy rate to a record low of 0.5% and step up non-conventional support at its meeting on Thursday. At its last meeting in early April, the Bank held rates steady. (See here .) …
22nd May 2020