Thai recovery facing headwinds

Thailand’s economy has been staging a gradual recovery from the crisis, with GDP figures due next week likely to show the economy contracted by around 5.5% y/y last quarter, compared with a decline of 6.6% in Q3. However, the recovery is running into headwinds. A jump in virus cases and the worsening prospects for the tourism industry mean GDP growth this year is likely to be slower than our original forecast of 6.0%. We will be revising down our forecast after the publication of the Q4 data on Monday. Our Singapore office will be closed for the Lunar New Year from midday on Thursday 11^th to Monday 15^th February (inclusive), and we are sending the Weekly earlier than normal.