The Asian century, little to fear from higher oil prices

We recently launched our new service, The Long Run, which includes detailed forecasts out to 2050 for 58 economies. One of the key points that comes out from the forecasts is that Emerging Asia is set to play an increasingly dominant role in the world by 2050. The region’s share of global GDP (measured at market exchange rates) is set to increase from 27% in 2019 to 39% by 2050. By 2050, seven of the world’s largest economies are expected to be in Emerging Asia, up from just four now. Meanwhile, the recent jump in oil prices does not pose a significant threat to the region’s prospects. Higher oil prices will lead to a jump in fuel prices, but headline inflation should remain subdued. And while higher prices will lead to an increase in import bills, this is little to worry about given that most countries in Emerging Asia run large current account surpluses.