Korea second wave will weigh on the recovery

A growing second wave of infections in Korea is set to weigh on the recovery there. While new restrictions to contain the virus have been light, there is evidence that businesses and individuals have been quick to change their behaviour by themselves. As such, the rebound in private consumption is likely to come to a halt, which will set back the economic recovery. We are lowering our forecast for GDP growth this year from -1.5% (with upside risks), to -2.0%.