GDP figures for Vietnam should always be treated with caution, but data released before New Year show that the economy grew by an impressive 4.5% y/y in the final quarter of 2020. This brought growth for the year to 2.9%, which is likely to have made Vietnam the best performing country in the region. The recovery should continue, and by the end of 2021 we think GDP will be only 1.5% lower than it would have been had the crisis not happened. This is one of the smallest gaps in the region.
The rollout of vaccines across Asia has got off to a slow start. In the near term, the availability of vaccines will act as a constraint on the speed of rollouts, and it is unlikely to be until the second half of the year that the worst-hit countries have vaccinated a sufficient proportion of the vulnerable population to allow for a significant relaxation of restrictions.
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