Filtered by Topic: Geoeconomics Use setting Geoeconomics
Donald Trump raised the stakes for the global economy with an announcement of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% tariffs on goods from China. What are the immediate macro and market consequences of this move, which countries could be …
31st January 2025
Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly …
2nd February 2025
Putin’s turn to up the ante We argued last Friday that President Trump’s comments on the war in Ukraine were likely to be met with a cold reception in Russia, dampening hopes of a quick end to the conflict. And an interview given by President Putin this …
Will OPEC+ heed Trump’s calls on oil output? Last Thursday’s comments from President Trump for OPEC+ to reduce the cost of oil has put some downward pressure on prices in the past week. OPEC+ is unlikely to change its existing plans for oil output (to …
30th January 2025
This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal tariff and hence growing speculation about more aggressive …
27th January 2025
Trump ups the ante against Russia Comments by President Trump that he would tighten US trade and sanctions policy against Russia if Putin does not agree to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine are likely to have been received with anger in Moscow. The …
24th January 2025
Nigeria becomes BRICS latest partner country We think Nigeria’s recent admittance as the BRICS’s latest “partner” member adds to the evidence that the government is trying to straddle the geopolitical divide between US- and China-led blocs. After being …
Saudi-US relations already on a stronger footing Over the past year, Saudi Arabia’s shift toward China appears to have been on pause as it awaited to see the victor of the US presidential race. With Donald Trump now back in the White House, there are …
23rd January 2025
The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will reshape global energy flows during his term. That …
US sanctions on Russian energy cause a stir Oil prices had a strong start to the week following the news of further US sanctions against Russia's oil sector. We outlined our thoughts here but in short, the disruption from these sanctions could take time …
17th January 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
Gaza ceasefire: economic spillovers to fade Israel and Hamas provisionally agreed to a ceasefire deal on Wednesday. Israel’s PM Netanyahu today has accused Hamas of reneging on part of the deal. But if this can be overcome, it represents a major …
16th January 2025
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25) …
15th January 2025
Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position this time round. We’ve written extensively on what a …
14th January 2025
If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, the main beneficiaries would be other …
The power vacuum created by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation comes at a bad time, with President-elect Donald Trump ratcheting up his threats against Canada, raising the risk that the next government will be parachuted onto the front lines of a …
10th January 2025
Trump softening his expectations on the war? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20 th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and recent comments from officials suggesting …
Trump has his eyes on the Canal When Donald Trump won the US election back in November, the last thing we thought we’d be writing about in this Weekly – just 10 days before his inauguration – was the Panama Canal. But the big news in the region this week …
Mozambique and the return of Mondlane Post-election unrest in Mozambique threatens to re-escalate with Daniel Chapo set to be inaugurated as the country’s next president on Wednesday and opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane returned to the country this …
While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks – Saudi Arabia performing a major pivot in oil policy and …
9th January 2025
US President-elect Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import tariff, but we remain relatively sanguine …
2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here. With Donald Trump just days away from returning to the White House, our Macro and Markets teams held …
Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) …
8th January 2025
The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to the early-2010s was instead an era of globalisation: most …
7th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
Is Putin moving closer to a compromise? A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that the two sides …
20th December 2024
Overview – Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region will disappoint consensus expectations for …
17th December 2024
Winner and losers from Assad’s downfall The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a monumental development after a period of 54 years in which his family had ruled the country. While there is still a high level of uncertainty over the …
13th December 2024
OPEC+ alters Gulf’s economic outlook Following our previous Weekly , OPEC+ announced that it would be pushing back the start date of when it will unwind oil production cuts to April 2025 and that the pace of increase will be slower than we had previously …
12th December 2024
2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for his radical stabilisation plan and whether the Czech …
10th December 2024
The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the EU to halve over the coming years as global LNG …
The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been warmly received by many, at least outside Russia and Iran, but a key lesson from the other Arab Spring countries is that hopes for a shift towards a liberal, Western-style democracy are likely to be …
9th December 2024
Syria’s rebel advance tests MENA’s geopolitics Over the past week, Syrian rebel forces have retaken significant amounts of territory from President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with little resistance so far. It’s unclear whether the rebels will make further …
5th December 2024
While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain geopolitical backdrop is a major wildcard for energy markets. Of …
3rd December 2024
It’s the season for the usual avalanche of reports looking ahead to the coming twelve months. Over the coming days and weeks we will publish our macro and market Outlook reports, which will provide in-depth analysis and comprehensive forecasts across our …
2nd December 2024
Mexico in Trump’s crosshairs President-elect Donald Trump fired the opening salvo in the next round of the trade war this week, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico (as well as from Canada, plus a separate tariff on China) on day …
29th November 2024
The ruble’s rollercoaster ride Donald Trump’s election victory has made some form of an end to the war in Ukraine more likely. (For more, see here .) His appointment this week of Keith Kellogg as his Russia-Ukraine envoy also points in this direction. Mr. …
Trump links some tariffs to the drug trade Earlier this week, President Trump threatened to impose an “additional” 10% tariff on imports from China, along with tariffs on Mexico and Canada. We gave our initial thoughts here , noting that because the …
The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already below-consensus growth forecasts have shifted further to …
28th November 2024
Economic spillovers of regional conflict may fade The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. For Egypt and Jordan, among the countries most directly affected by …
The failure of COP29 to deliver on ambitious climate finance targets means that developing economies still lack sufficient low-cost finance for climate adaption. That leaves them reliant on debt-based finance, adding to debt burdens and raising the risk …
27th November 2024
The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow Lebanon’s shattered economy to recover and ease fiscal …
Russia’s war in Ukraine escalates Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with the US shifting its strategy to give Ukraine the go-ahead to use Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an …
22nd November 2024
Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the support for manufacturing investment aligns with Trump’s …
US President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations announced over the past week give us a guide to how his policies will affect Latin America. The fact many of his choices, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security secretary) and Thomas Homan (“border …
15th November 2024
The focus this week has continued to be on the consequences of the US election results for Europe. So while a lot remains unclear at this stage, it is worth reiterating what we think are the main implications. First, it seems likely that the US will …
Stronger inflation rules out rate cut before end-24 The third successive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate has all but quashed hopes that the central bank will cut interest rates before the end of this year. But, as we have long argued, a sharp …
14th November 2024
The UK is not as exposed to US import tariffs as many other economies and we suspect any resulting reduction in UK GDP would be very small. That said, the car and pharmaceutical sectors are the most vulnerable areas of the UK economy. And we don’t think …
Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the economic implications for Russia and Ukraine, for Europe …
It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift in the pro-Israel/anti-Iran stance that broadens the …
12th November 2024
