RBNZ to watch and wait for longer On Wednesday we learnt that inflation in New Zealand moderated from 4.7% in Q4 to 4.0% in Q1. At first glance, that outturn was only a touch stronger than the 3.8% the RBNZ had predicted. However, the details of the CPI …
19th April 2024
Gulf find itself in a bind if conflict escalates The ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel over the past couple of weeks has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, though, it seems unlikely that the Gulf …
18th April 2024
The third consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in March, coming on the heels of the 303,000 surge in non-farm payrolls, fuelled fears that a pick-up in the real economy is now translating into a resurgence in inflation too. We are not convinced. …
12th April 2024
The US dollar has surged in the wake of another too-hot US CPI print , a dovish ECB and disappointing credit data out of China . The DXY index is now approaching its peak of last autumn (~106 currently, vs ~107 on 1 st November), and our sense is that the …
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s pledge to create the conditions needed for lower interest rates means the government is unlikely to announce much new near-term spending in Budget 2024 next week. Providing that core inflation pressures remain muted, …
Spectre of former President Zuma worries ANC The big news in South Africa this week was a court decision allowing former president Zuma to stand in the May elections, which has added another level of uncertainty to the vote. Opinion polls suggest that his …
Strong US CPI puts further pressure on the RMB The stronger US CPI print on Wednesday pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Most currencies depreciated against the US dollar as a result. But, while the offshore renminbi weakened 0.4% on Wednesday, …
Underlying inflation still a cause for concern The common theme from the March CPI data released this week was that headline inflation surprised to the downside in the region’s major economies. But markets and central banks have paid just as much – if not …
How is Egypt’s policy shift one month on It’s now been just over a month since Egypt’s “ Super Wednesday ” policy shift and, while it is still early days, the signs so far are positive and this time might be different to past policy U-turns. After …
The stronger-than-expected US CPI data for March may have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher but commodity prices largely shrugged off the news. Indeed, precious metals rose strongly this week, with gold prices breaking a new intra-day record …
Where the US leads, the UK often follows. So the rebound in the US CPI inflation rate from 3.2% in February to 3.5% in March and the unchanged core CPI inflation rate of 3.8% has spurred fears that the downward trend in UK inflation will soon stall. In …
Oil price rally a headache for most in EM Europe... The price of brent crude oil continued to hover around $90pb this week, near its highest level in six months, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added to fears over oil supply. For most …
Is Yoon now a lame duck? President Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) in Korea won just 108 of the 300 seats up for grabs in this week’s parliamentary election, down from 119 in the previous parliament. That left the Democratic Party (DP) and some smaller …
The main takeaway from Thursday’s ECB meeting is that a rate cut in June is highly likely. Big upward surprises to inflation and wage growth data, or increases in the ECB’s updated inflation projections, would probably be necessary for officials to hold …
Encouraging signs for manufacturing sector The general election is a week away and manifestos have finally been released. The main opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party has now published its full manifesto, while the BJP published manifestos for …
Markets fret inflation risks The RBNZ’s meeting this Wednesday went by without much ado, with the Bank leaving rates unchanged as everyone had expected. If anything, the Committee sounded a touch dovish, as it no longer mentioned its limited tolerance for …
Yen falling to fresh 34-year low Following a hotter-than-expected US inflation print, the yen has now weakened to 153 against the dollar for the first time since 1990. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda explicitly ruled out responding to the weakness of the …
Another robust US non-farm payrolls report has seen the dollar rebound a bit, unwinding some of its losses earlier in the week and putting the DXY index on track to end the week near its highest level on the year. With FOMC members continuing to signal …
5th April 2024
The prices of oil and gold increased sharply this week . The price of Brent rose to over $90 per barrel on fears that Iran could start to play a greater role in the Israel-Hamas conflict. And earlier in the week, OPEC+ reaffirmed its output restraint in …
The insolvency data released this week show the toll that high interest rates are putting on consumers and businesses. That is unlikely to be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates next week but, with the cracks in the labour market …
Supercore inflation fundamentals still improving Inflation fundamentals improving This week brought more good news on the outlook for so-called supercore inflation. Core services (ex-housing) prices, aka supercore, are the most labour-sensitive component …
Banxico: hawks still rule the roost The hawkish tone of the minutes to Banxico’s March meeting, at which it kicked off its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, adds weight to our view that the easing cycle will be very gradual. We already knew that one member …
SA’s weak demand is holding back its recovery South Africa’s March PMI numbers were disappointing and support our view that, while the drags from loadshedding and austerity are easing, the recovery this year will be subdued. The ABSA/BER manufacturing …
BoT tightened in 2023 policy despite weak data The Bank of Thailand surprised most economists and financial markets last year when it continued to tighten monetary policy even as inflation dropped well below target (see Chart 1) and growth slowed. Chart …
While we learnt this week that inflation in the euro-zone fell a bit more than expected in March, to 2.4%, some commentators pointed out that the monthly increase was quite high, at 0.8%, and was even higher than in February (0.6%). However, most of the …
Identifying pockets of risk amid the optimism The positive news on India shows no signs of abating. The final composite PMI reading for March released this week rose to a 90-month(!) high. (See Chart 1.) That was underpinned by strength in both the …
Fiscal risks building in parts of CEE The larger-than-expected 2023 budget deficit figures released across parts of Central Europe this week underline our concerns about the fiscal challenges facing the region, particularly in Hungary. The better news …
Whether you’re a monetarist or not, it’s hard to ignore the big rise in the annual growth rate of M4 money coming out of the pandemic being a harbinger of the surge in CPI inflation. Shortly before CPI inflation surged from 0.3% in November 2020 to a …
PBOC eases auto loan policy to stimulate demand On Wednesday, the PBOC scrapped the regulatory minimum down payment for car loans on all passenger vehicles, giving banks the freedom to offer higher loan-to-value ratios. This latest attempt by the central …
No rush to cut rates The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting, published earlier this week, revealed that the Bank has now abandoned its tightening bias. Indeed, for the first time since May 2022, the Board didn’t discuss the option of raising rates higher. …
Tankan points to persistent strength in inflation Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today provided the strongest hint yet that the Bank is keen to hike interest rates further in the second half of the year. He noted that the probability of attaining a …
The threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest point since the war in Gaza began. A full-blown war would not only have major repercussions for Iran’s own economy, but the spillovers into oil markets could have a significant …
4th April 2024
Brazil: Copom signals it will tread more cautiously The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week (at which it cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 10.75%, as expected) confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. …
28th March 2024
The US dollar has eked out small gains against some major currencies so far this week, leaving the DXY index just below 105 at the time of writing. During an otherwise quiet week, the February PCE data release out of the US tomorrow may add to the …
Zambia moves closer to full debt restructuring deal Zambia secured an debt restructuring deal with private bondholders this week. It looks like it has the seal of approval from official creditors, paving the way for the country to finally exit default. …
The economy made a strong start to 2024, but that was partly due to the end of strike disruption and the record warm winter. We expect GDP growth to slow sharply next quarter, persuading the Bank of Canada to start its loosening cycle in June. GDP surges …
Confirmation that France’s budget deficit was much higher last year (5.5%) than assumed in the government’s 2024 budget (4.9%) adds to concerns about Europe’s public finances. Indeed, Germany, France and Italy are all likely to be tightening fiscal policy …
China is driving the global renewable rollout… It came as no surprise to see China loom large in the International Renewables Energy Agency’s provisional statistics on renewable energy capacity in 2023. As shown in Chart 1, China added more than twice as …
Hungary shifting down the monetary easing gears The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB), after it slowed its easing cycle on Tuesday , support our view that the pace of rate cuts is set to slow further over the coming months. The …
Everyone knows that one reason why the recession was so small and short is because higher interest rates had a smaller drag on the economy than in the past. But it’s less appreciated that future interest rate cuts may not boost the economy as much either. …
Streets of Baltimore The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is the 15 th largest in the country, …
CEO visits underscore China’s continued appeal President Xi held a rare, highly-publicised meeting in Beijing with a visiting US business delegation this week. The optimistic take is that, facing economic weakness and collapsing FDI, China’s leadership is …
Egypt policy shift to get final seal of approval Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors but it will not be painless and economic growth will be sluggish this year and next. And there is a lot more work to do to …
Inflation risks linger on At first glance, it would appear that much of the data released this week went the way the RBA was hoping. First, we found out that CPI inflation is on track to undershoot the Bank’s expectations this quarter. Second, retail …
BoJ won’t provide much help in supporting yen With the yen hitting a 34-year low of just under 152 against the dollar on Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance’s Masato Kanda noted that the government will respond resolutely to “excessive” yen weakness and …
Singapore’s core inflation not as sticky as it seems Singapore experienced one of the biggest post-pandemic inflation spikes in Asia. Core price pressures even now are among the highest in the region. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Core Inflation (%, y/y) …
External position looks secure Balance of payments data released this week show that India’s current account deficit narrowed from US$11.4bn (1.3% of GDP) in Q3 2023 to US$10.5bn (1.2% of GDP) in Q4. Taking a longer perspective of the four quarters to Q4, …
The US dollar has bounced back from its brief drop after the FOMC’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference, and is ending the week stronger across the board. To some extent that is surprising: the FOMC’s overall message arguably had a …
22nd March 2024
Has Tusk changed the tide in Poland? The 100 day milestone for Poland’s new government is marked today. From an economic perspective, we think there are three key points worth highlighting about how the outlook has and hasn’t changed. First, the release …
Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged Ukraine to halt the strikes may have tempered the price …
