Will inflation be below 2% for the first time in 3 years?

Next Wednesday’s release of April’s CPI inflation data could prove momentous if we’re right in thinking that inflation fell from 3.2% in March to below the 2.0% target for the first time in three years. This will be crucial in determining whether the first interest rate cut from 5.25% will happen in June (as we expect) or in August. What’s more important is what happens next. We think inflation will fall further, perhaps even to 1.0% later this year.

We’ll be discussing the outlook for UK inflation and interest rates in a 20-minute online briefing at 9.30am BST on Wednesday 22nd May shortly after the release of April's CPI data. (Register here.)