Overview – In the absence of a full-on second wave of the virus, we expect a strong economic recovery in the second half of the year and into 2021. Nevertheless, we expect occupancy to fall this year as absorption turns negative in most sectors, prompting …
17th June 2020
Overview – The coronavirus outbreak has transformed the economic outlook and is expected to hit commercial property hard. In the near term, we expect transactions, which are already slowing, to collapse and property yields to spike, as uncertainty over …
22nd May 2020
As a protracted economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will force the Bank of England to keep interest rates close to zero and further expand its quantitative easing programme (QE), gilt yields will probably stay very low for many years. And …
14th May 2020
We forecast further gains in most risky assets between now and the end of next year. This reflects our expectation of a rebound in economic activity starting in the second half of 2020, alongside the continuation of massive monetary and fiscal policy …
30th April 2020
Overview – The global spread of the coronavirus has dealt an extraordinary blow to energy demand, and – for as long as the containment measures remain in place – it is hard to see much upside for prices. However, once the lockdown measures are eased, the …
28th April 2020
Overview – Efforts to contain the coronavirus mean that the economies of the Middle East and North Africa will suffer their steepest downturn this year since the early 1980s. Draconian social distancing measures and travel restrictions are likely to have …
Overview – The housing market will take a deep hit from the coronavirus. We expect housing transactions and housebuilding to drop by 70% in Q2 this year, as physical distancing measures halt activity. Meanwhile, house prices will see the biggest fall …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to remain below its …
Overview – Measures designed to contain the spread of coronavirus have dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. Assuming that these measures are lifted at a global level in the second half of the year, we expect a small pick-up in industrial metals prices by …
27th April 2020
Overview – The downturn in Latin America this year will the deepest since reliable records began. The slow and limited economic policy responses in Brazil and Mexico, as well as struggles to bring their coronavirus outbreaks under control, suggest that …
24th April 2020
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa is set for one of its worst downturns in decades this year. The hardest hit economies are likely to be South Africa (due to its stringent lockdown measures), the large oil producers (Nigeria and Angola), and tourism dependent …
Overview – At the time of writing, economic activity has ground to a halt around the world owing to virus containment measures. For the most part, commodities prices have plunged given the collapse in demand. We think a gradual revival in economic …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The disruption relating to the coronavirus is set to cause the steepest fall in global GDP since the Second World War. We are forecasting a 5½% contraction this year, far bigger than the 0.5% fall seen during the …
23rd April 2020
Overview – Emerging Europe will experience its largest decline in real GDP this year since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The aggressive policy response across Central Europe and the ability of the authorities there to bring the virus under control …
Overview – The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will see the largest quarterly fall since …
21st April 2020
Low levels of government debt mean that Switzerland and the Nordic economies are comparatively well placed to withstand the acute stresses being placed on the public finances – particularly compared to the euro-zone. That said, output everywhere will take …
Overview – The lockdown has triggered the biggest economic slump since WW2 with activity likely to drop by around 20% in Q2. As the peak of the epidemic passes, restrictions will be lifted gradually, and household consumption will pick up again. But …
Overview - The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming months, unemployment is set to surge and …
20th April 2020
Overview – We think it will take the economy a few years to recover from an unprecedented hit to GDP of around 25% triggered by the lockdown implemented to contain the coronavirus. That’s because despite the unparalleled speed and size of the monetary and …
16th April 2020
Overview – After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds intensifying, output is still set to contract …
15th April 2020
Overview – With exports collapsing and countries across the region implementing draconian restrictions on travel and commerce, economic activity in Emerging Asia will contract sharply this year. Parts of South East Asia and Hong Kong are likely to be the …
Overview – The economy is heading for a record drop in GDP of 35% annualised in the second quarter. As firms and households are suffering permanent hits to their income, that slump will only be partially reversed in the second half of the year once the …
8th April 2020
Overview – Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay afloat and to maintain employment while …
Overview – As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment rate spiking to 12.5% within a few months. …
6th April 2020
Although fiscal and monetary support has helped a bit, we doubt that “risky” assets will sustainably outperform “safe” ones again until the global spread of the coronavirus slows, which would raise the prospect of lockdowns ending and economic activity …
3rd April 2020
We have compressed this edition of the Outlook to focus it on the most timely indicators. Overview – Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by …
2nd April 2020
Overview – The spread of the coronavirus across the USA and the various containment measures will bring many businesses to a standstill. This will be reflected in rising vacancy across all four major real estate sectors. Rents will come under downward …
27th March 2020
Overview – Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, the hit to real estate markets is still uncertain. The drop in economic output expected in the first half of this year, along with deteriorating investor sentiment will …
Overview – The fast-moving pace of developments means that the impact of COVID-19 on Emerging European real estate is highly uncertain. We expect the sharp decline in economic activity and deterioration in sentiment to weigh on rental values and cause …
Overview – The ever-changing economic effects of COVID-19 mean that the impact on real estate markets is highly uncertain. It is clear that the sharp contraction in economic activity and deterioration in sentiment over the first half of the year will …
20th March 2020
While the spread of, and policymakers’ response to, the coronavirus may continue to exert a big influence on asset returns over the next year or two, we don’t assume that it will affect their performance during the rest of this decade. Macroeconomic …
4th March 2020
Overview – A subdued economic outlook and continued contraction in retail are expected to weigh on all-property rents and returns this year. In the near-term, rising property yields will be the result of the ongoing correction in the retail sector this …
20th February 2020
We think the financial markets will be caught out this year by a decent acceleration in the quarterly rate of GDP growth preventing interest rates from being cut below 0.75%. And if we are right to assume that the UK and the EU will reach a fudge or …
12th February 2020
Overview – Fears about the coronavirus outbreak have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for the Gulf countries. Lower oil prices and a possible deepening of oil production cuts will act as a headwind to growth in early 2020. But even …
5th February 2020
Overview – A sharp decline in China’s economic growth in Q1 as a result of the coronavirus outbreak now seems certain. This will be a significant negative for metals demand, as China is the world’s single largest consumer of most metals, accounting for …
Overview – Provided that the coronavirus is contained, a gradual pick-up in global economic growth at a time of constrained supply should set the scene for higher oil prices in 2020. In contrast, we expect the average prices of natural gas and coal to …
30th January 2020
Overview – Economic growth in Africa is likely to come in at just 3% this year, as the slump that began in 2015 drags on. The limit on regional growth will, again, come from South Africa where hopes for a meaningful rebound this year look too optimistic. …
Overview – We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU will hold …
28th January 2020
Overview – A gradual rebound in global economic growth and, in many cases, constrained supply mean that we are broadly positive on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2020-21. One exception is the price of gold, which we expect to fall on the back of …
27th January 2020
After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets will eventually unwind, since we simply don’t know how it …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We think that global growth is at or near a trough, with leading indicators picking up around the world and some EMs already experiencing a revival. But the global recovery will be gradual and uneven. The US should …
Overview – While the decisive election result could lead to a modest increase in housing demand over the next couple of years, we doubt that this will translate into a substantive pick-up in transactions or house prices. Indeed, any improvement in …
23rd January 2020
Overview – Cooling property construction is likely to weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters. But with external demand starting to stabilise, the slowdown should be gradual, as long as the coronavirus outbreak is contained. External Demand – …
Overview – Regional GDP growth is likely to gather pace this year as loose monetary and fiscal policy bolsters recoveries in Russia and Turkey and helps to cushion the slowdown in Central Europe. Interest rates will probably end this year lower than …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be lacklustre. And growth in …
22nd January 2020
We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is likely to be close to zero. Meanwhile, we think the …
Overview – Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the emerging world again this year. Inflation will …
21st January 2020
Overview – We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and spending to weaken, and investment intentions have …
Overview – Most countries in Emerging Asia should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year helped by continued policy support. Several have announced expansionary budgets or fiscal stimulus packages, while most central banks are likely to cut …
16th January 2020
Overview – Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which should weigh on wage growth and underlying …
