Steep regional recession, default risks growing

Sub-Saharan Africa is set for one of its worst downturns in decades this year. The hardest hit economies are likely to be South Africa (due to its stringent lockdown measures), the large oil producers (Nigeria and Angola), and tourism dependent economies (Mauritius and Botswana). And given the difficulty of containing the virus on the continent, there is a real risk that the damage caused by social distancing is more protracted than elsewhere. The fiscal cost of the crisis will push many African countries towards debt restructuring.