Massive recession underway, difficult recovery ahead

With exports collapsing and countries across the region implementing draconian restrictions on travel and commerce, economic activity in Emerging Asia will contract sharply this year. Parts of South East Asia and Hong Kong are likely to be the worst affected economies. Even if the virus is eventually brought under control, weak demand and impaired balance sheets means recoveries will be gradual. Most economies are unlikely to regain their pre-crisis level of output until the middle of next year and will still be 2-4% smaller at the end of 2022 than if the crisis hadn’t happened.