Overview – The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so, with the number of new cases still very …
21st October 2020
Overview – The economies of the Middle East and North Africa have continued to recover in recent months but, while the Gulf countries seem to have the virus under control, low oil prices mean that fiscal consolidation will continue to hold back growth. In …
Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging that Denmark’s second wave already looks to have …
20th October 2020
Overview – The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think Spain’s economy will probably contract in Q4, …
19th October 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and some movement out of cities have helped drive home sales to 13-year highs. But with inventory falling to record lows, mortgage lending standards tightening and unemployment elevated, …
16th October 2020
Overview - Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic activity could surprise to the upside next year. …
15th October 2020
Overview – The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The possibility of even tighter COVID-19 restrictions and …
13th October 2020
Download the pdf for the full Outlook Overview – China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on …
12th October 2020
Overview With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way. In the countries hit worst economically, the …
8th October 2020
Overview – Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to rise by 3.5% next year, after this year’s …
Overview – The rise in cases of COVID-19 and renewed restrictions in some provinces have caused us to trim our forecast for GDP growth in the short term, but the bigger picture is that we are more optimistic than most about prospects in 2021 and 2022. The …
6th October 2020
The market movements of recent weeks are a timely reminder of the importance of the main near-term risks – coronavirus cases rising in major economies as winter approaches, and uncertainty about the forthcoming US election. Both could continue to weigh on …
2nd October 2020
Absorption is falling in all markets and vacancy is ticking higher, particularly in D.C. and San Francisco (SF). But more pain is to come, and we have significantly downgraded our forecasts for the next few years. SF has already seen a 60bps rise in …
Overview – Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves of coronavirus infections during the winter …
1st October 2020
As the differences between a Brexit deal and a no deal are not as big as they once were, the economic costs of a no deal have diminished. The bigger risk is that relations between the UK and the EU deteriorate to such an extent that both sides start to …
Overview – The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the recovery will underwhelm too. The dire economic …
Overview – Investment activity and rents have felt the impact of the virus, with the retail sector bearing the brunt. Indeed, after falling by around 2% this year, we think that Scandinavian retail rents will end 2020 4% lower than in 2019. And with …
28th September 2020
Overview – While economic growth is expected to continue to recover over the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace than initially post-lockdown, it won’t be the end of falls in Emerging European property values. The sharp decline in retail …
25th September 2020
Overview – While we expect the economic recovery to continue, there are downside risks in the next couple of years, particularly in the consumer sector. This will weigh on retail property, which we expect to be the worst-performing sector. The major …
21st September 2020
Overview – As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so far, fragile occupier demand and rising …
18th September 2020
Overview – The near-term outlook for most commercial property sectors is poor despite the early signs of economic recovery. Although transactions are set to pick-up post-lockdown, we think property yields will rise further as the rental outlook …
19th August 2020
UK assets may outperform overseas assets over the next year or two even though the UK’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis may take longer. We think that a larger expansion in the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) programme than the …
13th August 2020
While risky assets have already rebounded a long way since their lows in March, we think that they will generally make further ground over the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. That view is underpinned by our forecast that the global economy will …
7th August 2020
Overview – Despite base metals prices already nearing pre-virus levels, we think that the rally has further to run. The key factor underpinning our positive outlook is the planned policy stimulus in China, much of which will take the form of …
31st July 2020
Overview – The partial easing of coronavirus containment measures has allowed energy demand and prices to pick up from the lows recorded earlier this year. That said, we anticipate that the recovery in energy demand will be only gradual over the next …
29th July 2020
China’s success in containing COVID-19 and the short duration of its lockdown have enabled its economy to rebound rapidly. With policy support set to remain strong, China is on course to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year, far earlier …
The ongoing recovery in economic activity – from lows earlier this year – will support the prices of most commodities in the second half of 2020 and into 2021. We are particularly positive on the outlook for industrial metals given that much of China’s …
Overview – South Africa, the oil producers (Angola and Nigeria) and tourism-dependent economies (Mauritius, Namibia and Botswana) are all likely to suffer particularly weak recoveries over the coming quarters. Many of the smaller economies in the region …
Overview – Oil production cuts, fiscal austerity, the continued spread of the virus, and weakness in key tourism sectors will hold back economic recoveries across the Middle East and North Africa. It will be one of the worst performing EM regions over the …
28th July 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The initial rapid pick-up in economic activity has offered encouragement after an almost unprecedented recession. But households and firms will remain in cautious mode, preventing a full V-shaped recovery. And …
27th July 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates have helped housing demand to recover swiftly from the shock of the coronavirus, with mortgage applications for home purchase recently hitting a 10-year high. Home sales have also jumped back, but a second wave of …
23rd July 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – An economic recovery is underway across emerging markets, but there are big differences in its speed and strength between regions and countries. China’s economy is making up lost ground rapidly and looks set to return to …
Overview – The failure to contain the coronavirus and the small size of fiscal support in some countries mean that Latin America will have the weakest recovery of any region globally. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are likely to be the worst performers, …
Overview – Lockdown slammed the brakes on activity and house price growth, but policy interventions have cushioned the blow for housing. As a result, our initial fears of a house price collapse have waned. That said, we still expect house prices to fall …
Overview – The economies of Emerging Europe are set to bounce back more strongly from the coronavirus crisis than those in many other parts of the world. Central Europe will lead the recovery. Governments have had success in slowing the spread of the …
22nd July 2020
The Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis comparatively well, and if our above-consensus forecasts for GDP growth this year prove accurate, the region will see some of the smallest falls in output in the whole of Europe. We forecast output in …
21st July 2020
Overview – The economy has partially recovered from the impact of the coronavirus containment measures imposed earlier in the year, but it will be a long time before it gets back to normal. Even if there are no new nationwide lockdowns, we suspect that …
Overview – The combination of a large share of the UK’s GDP being generated by the sectors that are hampered the most by social distancing and the drag from the uncertainty caused by Brexit means the UK economy will probably continue to lag behind its …
20th July 2020
Overview Economic activity is rebounding across the region, but the speed of the recovery varies significantly by country. Daily life in China, Vietnam and Taiwan has already returned largely to normal, thanks to their early success in containing the …
15th July 2020
Overview – The renewed virus outbreak in Victoria underlines that the recent strength of the recovery won’t be maintained. We expect output to remain below pre-virus levels until the end of next year. While the labour market has held up better than we …
Overview – Japan’s economic recovery has been threatened by a new wave of COVID-19 cases but the government probably won’t respond with drastic restrictions on activity. Output should therefore recover over the coming months, but social distancing …
9th July 2020
Overview – Canada’s relative success in containing the virus so far and the generosity of government income support suggest that the initial rebound in consumption will be stronger than we previously anticipated. But weak external demand and low commodity …
Overview – India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the recovery is likely to be one of the weakest among …
7th July 2020
Overview – The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is likely to be slower in the second half of …
6th July 2020
So long as the revival in the global economy continues, even if only gradually, we forecast that “risky” assets will resume their comfortable outperformance of “safe” ones. We do not buy the argument that a retail-driven bubble has formed in equity …
2nd July 2020
With the largest fall in occupier demand expected in New York City (NYC) and San Francisco (SF), and completions staying relatively strong in Los Angeles (LA) and SF, we expect these cities to see the largest rental declines and yield rises this year. On …
26th June 2020
Overview – While property values have so far been slow in responding to the virus-related fallout, economic indicators suggest that occupier demand took a hit in Q2. As a result, we think that it is only a matter of time for a repricing of property, with …
Overview – The sharp reduction in economic activity over the first half of the year and prolonged uncertainty have negatively impacted investment activity and occupier demand. We expect this will flow through to rental falls and higher yields this year, …
Overview – Thin deal evidence and market uncertainty has meant that the disruption from the virus has been slow to feed through to property values. However, significant falls in economic activity in H1 and continued uncertainty about the outlook have …
19th June 2020
