Overview – As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so far, fragile occupier demand and rising …
18th September 2020
Overview – The near-term outlook for most commercial property sectors is poor despite the early signs of economic recovery. Although transactions are set to pick-up post-lockdown, we think property yields will rise further as the rental outlook …
19th August 2020
UK assets may outperform overseas assets over the next year or two even though the UK’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis may take longer. We think that a larger expansion in the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) programme than the …
13th August 2020
While risky assets have already rebounded a long way since their lows in March, we think that they will generally make further ground over the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. That view is underpinned by our forecast that the global economy will …
7th August 2020
Overview – Despite base metals prices already nearing pre-virus levels, we think that the rally has further to run. The key factor underpinning our positive outlook is the planned policy stimulus in China, much of which will take the form of …
31st July 2020
Overview – The partial easing of coronavirus containment measures has allowed energy demand and prices to pick up from the lows recorded earlier this year. That said, we anticipate that the recovery in energy demand will be only gradual over the next …
29th July 2020
China’s success in containing COVID-19 and the short duration of its lockdown have enabled its economy to rebound rapidly. With policy support set to remain strong, China is on course to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year, far earlier …
The ongoing recovery in economic activity – from lows earlier this year – will support the prices of most commodities in the second half of 2020 and into 2021. We are particularly positive on the outlook for industrial metals given that much of China’s …
Overview – South Africa, the oil producers (Angola and Nigeria) and tourism-dependent economies (Mauritius, Namibia and Botswana) are all likely to suffer particularly weak recoveries over the coming quarters. Many of the smaller economies in the region …
Overview – Oil production cuts, fiscal austerity, the continued spread of the virus, and weakness in key tourism sectors will hold back economic recoveries across the Middle East and North Africa. It will be one of the worst performing EM regions over the …
28th July 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The initial rapid pick-up in economic activity has offered encouragement after an almost unprecedented recession. But households and firms will remain in cautious mode, preventing a full V-shaped recovery. And …
27th July 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates have helped housing demand to recover swiftly from the shock of the coronavirus, with mortgage applications for home purchase recently hitting a 10-year high. Home sales have also jumped back, but a second wave of …
23rd July 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – An economic recovery is underway across emerging markets, but there are big differences in its speed and strength between regions and countries. China’s economy is making up lost ground rapidly and looks set to return to …
Overview – The failure to contain the coronavirus and the small size of fiscal support in some countries mean that Latin America will have the weakest recovery of any region globally. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia are likely to be the worst performers, …
Overview – Lockdown slammed the brakes on activity and house price growth, but policy interventions have cushioned the blow for housing. As a result, our initial fears of a house price collapse have waned. That said, we still expect house prices to fall …
Overview – The economies of Emerging Europe are set to bounce back more strongly from the coronavirus crisis than those in many other parts of the world. Central Europe will lead the recovery. Governments have had success in slowing the spread of the …
22nd July 2020
The Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis comparatively well, and if our above-consensus forecasts for GDP growth this year prove accurate, the region will see some of the smallest falls in output in the whole of Europe. We forecast output in …
21st July 2020
Overview – The economy has partially recovered from the impact of the coronavirus containment measures imposed earlier in the year, but it will be a long time before it gets back to normal. Even if there are no new nationwide lockdowns, we suspect that …
Overview – The combination of a large share of the UK’s GDP being generated by the sectors that are hampered the most by social distancing and the drag from the uncertainty caused by Brexit means the UK economy will probably continue to lag behind its …
20th July 2020
Overview Economic activity is rebounding across the region, but the speed of the recovery varies significantly by country. Daily life in China, Vietnam and Taiwan has already returned largely to normal, thanks to their early success in containing the …
15th July 2020
Overview – The renewed virus outbreak in Victoria underlines that the recent strength of the recovery won’t be maintained. We expect output to remain below pre-virus levels until the end of next year. While the labour market has held up better than we …
Overview – Japan’s economic recovery has been threatened by a new wave of COVID-19 cases but the government probably won’t respond with drastic restrictions on activity. Output should therefore recover over the coming months, but social distancing …
9th July 2020
Overview – Canada’s relative success in containing the virus so far and the generosity of government income support suggest that the initial rebound in consumption will be stronger than we previously anticipated. But weak external demand and low commodity …
Overview – India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the recovery is likely to be one of the weakest among …
7th July 2020
Overview – The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is likely to be slower in the second half of …
6th July 2020
So long as the revival in the global economy continues, even if only gradually, we forecast that “risky” assets will resume their comfortable outperformance of “safe” ones. We do not buy the argument that a retail-driven bubble has formed in equity …
2nd July 2020
With the largest fall in occupier demand expected in New York City (NYC) and San Francisco (SF), and completions staying relatively strong in Los Angeles (LA) and SF, we expect these cities to see the largest rental declines and yield rises this year. On …
26th June 2020
Overview – While property values have so far been slow in responding to the virus-related fallout, economic indicators suggest that occupier demand took a hit in Q2. As a result, we think that it is only a matter of time for a repricing of property, with …
Overview – The sharp reduction in economic activity over the first half of the year and prolonged uncertainty have negatively impacted investment activity and occupier demand. We expect this will flow through to rental falls and higher yields this year, …
Overview – Thin deal evidence and market uncertainty has meant that the disruption from the virus has been slow to feed through to property values. However, significant falls in economic activity in H1 and continued uncertainty about the outlook have …
19th June 2020
Overview – In the absence of a full-on second wave of the virus, we expect a strong economic recovery in the second half of the year and into 2021. Nevertheless, we expect occupancy to fall this year as absorption turns negative in most sectors, prompting …
17th June 2020
Overview – The coronavirus outbreak has transformed the economic outlook and is expected to hit commercial property hard. In the near term, we expect transactions, which are already slowing, to collapse and property yields to spike, as uncertainty over …
22nd May 2020
As a protracted economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will force the Bank of England to keep interest rates close to zero and further expand its quantitative easing programme (QE), gilt yields will probably stay very low for many years. And …
14th May 2020
We forecast further gains in most risky assets between now and the end of next year. This reflects our expectation of a rebound in economic activity starting in the second half of 2020, alongside the continuation of massive monetary and fiscal policy …
30th April 2020
Overview – The global spread of the coronavirus has dealt an extraordinary blow to energy demand, and – for as long as the containment measures remain in place – it is hard to see much upside for prices. However, once the lockdown measures are eased, the …
28th April 2020
Overview – Efforts to contain the coronavirus mean that the economies of the Middle East and North Africa will suffer their steepest downturn this year since the early 1980s. Draconian social distancing measures and travel restrictions are likely to have …
Overview – The housing market will take a deep hit from the coronavirus. We expect housing transactions and housebuilding to drop by 70% in Q2 this year, as physical distancing measures halt activity. Meanwhile, house prices will see the biggest fall …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to remain below its …
Overview – Measures designed to contain the spread of coronavirus have dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. Assuming that these measures are lifted at a global level in the second half of the year, we expect a small pick-up in industrial metals prices by …
27th April 2020
Overview – The downturn in Latin America this year will the deepest since reliable records began. The slow and limited economic policy responses in Brazil and Mexico, as well as struggles to bring their coronavirus outbreaks under control, suggest that …
24th April 2020
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa is set for one of its worst downturns in decades this year. The hardest hit economies are likely to be South Africa (due to its stringent lockdown measures), the large oil producers (Nigeria and Angola), and tourism dependent …
Overview – At the time of writing, economic activity has ground to a halt around the world owing to virus containment measures. For the most part, commodities prices have plunged given the collapse in demand. We think a gradual revival in economic …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The disruption relating to the coronavirus is set to cause the steepest fall in global GDP since the Second World War. We are forecasting a 5½% contraction this year, far bigger than the 0.5% fall seen during the …
23rd April 2020
Overview – Emerging Europe will experience its largest decline in real GDP this year since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The aggressive policy response across Central Europe and the ability of the authorities there to bring the virus under control …
Overview – The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will see the largest quarterly fall since …
21st April 2020
Low levels of government debt mean that Switzerland and the Nordic economies are comparatively well placed to withstand the acute stresses being placed on the public finances – particularly compared to the euro-zone. That said, output everywhere will take …
Overview – The lockdown has triggered the biggest economic slump since WW2 with activity likely to drop by around 20% in Q2. As the peak of the epidemic passes, restrictions will be lifted gradually, and household consumption will pick up again. But …
Overview - The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming months, unemployment is set to surge and …
20th April 2020
Overview – We think it will take the economy a few years to recover from an unprecedented hit to GDP of around 25% triggered by the lockdown implemented to contain the coronavirus. That’s because despite the unparalleled speed and size of the monetary and …
16th April 2020
Overview – After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds intensifying, output is still set to contract …
15th April 2020
