Elections, vaccine, and virus resurgence all key risks

Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves of coronavirus infections during the winter flu season prompt more economy-damaging lockdowns. The key upside risks are that an effective vaccine becomes widely available early next year or that, post-election, the new Congress agrees on another major fiscal stimulus.