The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is likely to be slower in the second half of the year. Accordingly, while we now expect GDP to contract by a more modest 4.6% in 2020, we also expect the recovery to be more muted, with GDP growth of 4.5% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022.
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