Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum and regional growth is likely to remain sub-2% this year and next. With inflation set to remain above target for a while yet, easing cycles in many countries will be …
28th August 2024
Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. The outlook will become more challenging from 2025 as oil prices fall back and it becomes more difficult to sustain loose …
The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI inflation is likely to have accelerated in August, but it …
27th August 2024
Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. While underlying inflation will fall further below 2% over the coming months, we still expect the Bank to hike rates once more …
26th August 2024
Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) …
23rd August 2024
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024) …
The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and leading indicators have weakened at the start of Q3. With interest rates likely to be kept high in Russia and Turkey over the coming months, we think that a further …
22nd August 2024
The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the economy is heading for a soft landing, we doubt the Fed …
19th August 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (August 2024) …
15th August 2024
The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected. As a result, we now think house prices will grow by 2.0% y/y in Q4 2024 (1.0% previously). What’s more, our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.00% now to …
Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent financial market turmoil, we still expect the 10-year …
Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths when it comes to policy setting in the near term. With the New Zealand economy …
While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we expect the eventual peak-to-trough decline to …
14th August 2024
At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global financial markets will be enough to persuade the Bank to cut …
7th August 2024
With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside risks to the economy, we expect the Bank to cut interest …
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 24) …
US recession fears mask growing Middle East risks Commodities have not been immune to the recent turmoil in financial markets, with the prices of most industrial metals, agricultural, and energy commodities extending their downward trends over the past …
A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness, by lifting demand from its current slump – providing …
6th August 2024
The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a cut is justified next month, and recent concerns about …
The US dollar has remained rangebound against most other major currencies in July, even as expected interest rates have fallen sharply in the US in the wake of softer inflation and employment data. That reflects falling interest rate expectations …
2nd August 2024
China’s economy has slowed recently but we think it will regain some momentum during the second half of the year. Consumers remain cautious and the housing market continues to weaken. But exports look set to stay strong for a while longer. And the …
Given that we broadly share investors' view about how far DM central banks will ease monetary policy this year and next, we forecast government bond yields in most developed markets to end 2024 close to their current levels. Meanwhile, we think investors …
Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) …
31st July 2024
We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. We expect the “big-tech” sectors to lead the charge again before long, helping equities in the US outperform those in most other economies. And we expect equities …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (July 2024) …
29th July 2024
Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather further momentum as real wage growth turns positive in the second half of the year. With goods inflation still having strong momentum, we now expect the …
25th July 2024
Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in the next few quarters. At a country level, we expect the Andean economies to outperform Brazil and Mexico in the next couple of years. With inflation set to rise further in …
24th July 2024
The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next couple of years. Headline CPI inflation will gradually fall over the coming months, …
The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We forecast that core PCE inflation will return to the 2% …
22nd July 2024
EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard. While we still expect …
18th July 2024
The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe strengthened further in Q2, while Russia’s economy continued to overheat. In Turkey there are signs that demand may be beginning to moderate in response to policy …
Yields look to have topped out in most sectors and alongside solid rental growth that means capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with no yield compression in sight the recovery will be weak by past standards, not helped by a struggling …
17th July 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024) …
15th July 2024
The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend that should continue over the coming quarters. However, it will be a while before policymakers can be confident that they have broken the back of inflation. Accordingly, we …
Shipping costs have now risen far enough to start adding to global CPI inflation. However, so far, the boost to prices is probably only in the region of 0.1%, on average. What’s more, surging freight rates to some extent reflect a shift in demand towards …
10th July 2024
The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with unemployment at a record low and wage growth picking up in Q1. …
9th July 2024
We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate ending the year at 3.75% and settling at …
4th July 2024
The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one, will benefit from the economic recovery being a bit …
3rd July 2024
China overcapacity fears coming to industrial metals China’s dominant role in the world of commodities is evolving subtly. This is particularly the case for gold, where increased demand by the PBoC and Chinese retail investors has weakened the importance …
This chartpack is a new addition to our suite of commercial property analysis, which pulls together our views across the three regions we forecast and provides important context for investors. The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a …
Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) …
28th June 2024
China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively well in the near-term. Consumers remain cautious, and a slew of policy measures aimed at supporting the ailing property sector has done little to boost new …
The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably because the UK election result isn’t in doubt and the …
27th June 2024
After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters. Brazil and Mexico’s economies are likely to underperform the Andes and disappoint consensus expectations in the next …
25th June 2024
Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple of years. …
Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the outlook will become more challenging from 2025 as oil prices …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (June 2024) …
The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow the Fed to cut rates again in December and by even …
24th June 2024
After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard. While we expect the EM monetary easing cycle to …
20th June 2024
