Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling energy prices helps importers but hurts exporters. Tight fiscal policy will affect most, constraining growth which will be below consensus expectations over the course of 2024-26. Sovereign debt restructuring talks in Ghana and Zambia may be almost over but these and peers across the continent will remain locked out of borrowing from international capital markets. Mozambique is the country most likely to enter sovereign default.
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