EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses an additional downside risk to our already below-consensus 2025 growth forecasts. Strong inflation has already caused monetary easing cycles in Latin America and Central Europe to slow or pause. Rate pauses could be prolonged if US Treasury yields rise further. Central banks in Asia, where inflation is much lower, are likely to lead the next phase of the easing cycle.
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