This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs consistent with continued recession Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. (See Chart …
23rd November 2023
Riksbank peaks at 4% The Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 4.0% today was not a major surprise given that financial markets were pricing in only a 10% chance of a hike while economists were evenly split between a hike and a hold. (We …
BI on hold, end of the tightening cycle Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged and the comments from the press conference suggest this marks the end of the tightening cycle. With growth likely to struggle and inflation set to remain weak, …
For more detailed analysis of the Autumn Statement, see our UK Economics Focus here . Chancellor chips away at fiscal tightening ahead of an election The net new giveaway the Chancellor announced today of £14.3bn in 2024/25 (0.5% of GDP) is a bit bigger …
22nd November 2023
Equipment investment continues to struggle Aside from the plunge in the volatile transport component, the October durable goods orders data suggest that business equipment investment continues to struggle in the fourth quarter. The 5.4% m/m plunge in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Consumption bouncing back The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by …
Inflation rises, but SARB will take comfort from weaker core pressures The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet …
Fed offers something for everyone There is something for everyone in the minutes of the Fed’s early November policy meeting. The FOMC still just about maintained a tightening bias, but the overwhelming impression is that officials thought rates had …
21st November 2023
Spike in rates takes sales to fresh 13-year low Existing home sales fell sharply to a fresh 13-year low in October as the 8% peak in mortgage rates in the same month caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. Mortgage applications for home …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Core inflation pressures muted There was good news all round in the October CPI report, with the overall CPI falling in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms for the first …
Sticking to aggressive easing ... for now The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the disinflation …
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK macro and market consequences of the Chancellor’s Autumn statement at 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT on 22nd November. Register here for this 20-minute online briefing. This page has been updated with additional analysis since first …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economic recovery now underway The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP …
20th November 2023
Starts continue to bounce back With homebuilders encouraged by the recent surge in buyers entering the new homes market due to a lack of existing inventory, housing starts and permits edged slightly higher in October. Total housing starts rose 1.9% m/m …
17th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Retail woes continued at the start of Q4, and further weakness to come The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in October means that after contracting by 1.0% q/q (which was …
Output temporarily depressed by UAW strike The 0.7% m/m decline in manufacturing output in October was entirely due to the now-resolved UAW strike, which translated into a temporary 10.0% m/m fall in motor vehicle output. With the UAW securing lucrative …
16th November 2023
Israel holds up well in Q3, but sharp drop coming in Q4 The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. …
Rates on hold, tightening cycle at an end The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but warned it remained ready to raise interest rates further if necessary. However, with inflation likely to ease …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The rise in unemployment has further to run Although jobs growth gained momentum in October, a renewed uptick in the unemployment rate should ensure that the RBA doesn’t feel the …
Economy overheating, central bank has more work to do The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and …
15th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Struggling for momentum The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, …
Manufacturing and wholesale trade GDP broadly unchanged in September The slightly better-than-expected gains in manufacturing and wholesale sales in September do not change the big picture that GDP in each sector was probably largely unchanged, supporting …
Despite the indefatigable consumer, price pressures fading fast Retail sales values fell by 0.1% m/m in October, but the decline was principally due to a price-related drop back in gasoline station sales and a modest 1.0% m/m decline in motor vehicle …
Inflation quickens again, putting more pressure on the CBN to act Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated again to 27.3% y/y in September, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s struggles continued to feed through. The central bank will need to …
Retail recovery helping to offset industrial weakness September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that the economy probably stagnated over Q3 as a whole. Some of the recent drags on the economy, such as loadshedding, are likely to ease in 2024 but …
This publication has been updated with additional analysis. Output to continue falling Euro-zone industrial production fell in September and is likely to continue contracting in the final quarter of the year, primarily due to weak demand. The 1.1% m/m …
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Slower progress ahead after big plunge The fall in CPI inflation from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October was a bit bigger than expected (consensus and BoE forecasts 4.8%, CE …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Note: Join our Drop-In briefing on Thursday 16th November on the Xi-Biden meeting, the fracturing of the global economy, and what this means for Saudi Arabian …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Wage growth has likely peaked Notwithstanding the acceleration in wage growth last quarter, we doubt that the Reserve Bank of Australia will tighten policy any further. The 1.3% …
GDP (Q3 2023, Preliminary) Tepid Q3 GDP outturn sets the tone for 2024 GDP growth weakened sharply in the third quarter and we expect it to remain soft next year. The 0.5% q/q contraction in Q3 GDP (-2.1% annualised) was much weaker than the analyst …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Downward pressure on core inflation resumes The softer 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in October makes it even less likely that the Fed will raise rates any further, and …
14th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak economy will cool labour market from here We do not think the slight acceleration in employment growth in Q3 is a sign of things to come. With business surveys deep in …
Past the worst Q3 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a mixed performance across the region, but as a whole CEE economies appear to be past the worst of the downturn. With households’ real incomes rising again after last year’s …
Rise in target measure of inflation supports case for another hike The increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in October was broadly as anticipated and does not change our view that, while it will be a close call, policymakers are most …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Wage growth continues to ease, but only slowly With wage growth continuing to ease and signs that a further loosening in the labour market lies ahead, higher interest rates …
Second month of declining loan balances and plenty more to come The second consecutive monthly decline in outstanding commercial real estate loan balances held by US banks in October means the data are starting to reflect the pullback in real estate …
13th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Renewed food price spike the key inflation threat Headline consumer price inflation edged down to a four-month low of 4.9% y/y in October, but that’s already old news given the …
Economy likely to have slowed sharply in Q3 Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening will take a …
Climbing inflation will keep pressure on the CBR The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise over …
10th November 2023
Renewed inflation concerns The continued rise in consumers’ inflation expectations in November showed that October’s jump was not a one-off and will be of some concern to the Fed. However, the headwind from persistently weak confidence is likely to weigh …
The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further interest rate cuts. That said, we expect inflation to remain …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jump in inflation not enough to prompt another rate hike Despite the unexpected jump in Norway’s headline and core inflation rates in October, we still think the Norges Bank is …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Recession or not, economy not weak enough to quash price pressures The Q3 GDP data will spark a big debate about whether or not a recession has just begun (the published growth …
Banxico remains hawkish, but may be starting to contemplate cuts Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very …
9th November 2023
Higher services inflation to keep Banxico in hawkish mood Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a 32-month low of 4.3% y/y in October, but the fresh rise in services inflation will alarm officials at Banxico. We doubt this will prompt a restart to …
GDP rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year but we don’t expect this strength to last as high interest rates and weaker global growth lead to renewed economic weakness in the near term. According to the data published today, GDP rose by 3.3% …
This page has been updated with additional charts and analysis since the first publication. Deflationary returns but is unlikely to persist CPI slipped back into deflationary territory last month. This was mostly due to a drop in food inflation. But core …
NBP pauses easing cycle, interest rates to stay high in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) surprised most analysts in pausing its easing cycle today, and we think that the scope to deliver further interest rate cuts over the coming year is quite …
8th November 2023
NBR yet to show signs of a dovish pivot The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again at 7.00% today, and offered little evidence to suggest it is considering the start of an easing cycle just yet. We currently expect an easing …
