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Brazil IPCA (October 2023)

The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further interest rate cuts. That said, we expect inflation to remain above target, which, alongside the renewed flare up of fiscal risks, supports our view that interest rates will come down more slowly than most currently expect.

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