The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in October means that after contracting by 1.0% q/q (which was downwardly revised from -0.8% q/q) in Q3, retail activity remained weak at the start of Q4. That suggests higher interest rates are taking a bigger toll on real consumer spending. As that drag continues, we think retail activity will remain weak in the run up to the crucial festive period.
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