Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Easing cycle set to enter a stop-start phase The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 10.50% (rather than opt for another 50bp step) and drop its forward guidance confirm that most of the rate cuts in this easing cycle are …
8th May 2024
Inflation pressures stabilising, rate cuts still some way off The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was …
3rd May 2024
PMI bounces as electricity supply improves South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in April, adding to signs the economy is finally moving on from stagnation as the electricity situation improves. And with price pressures still elevated, the SARB looks …
2nd May 2024
Strong Q1 growth masks lacklustre domestic recovery Hong Kong’s GDP surprised to the upside in Q1, expanding by 2.3% q/q, up from a downwardly-revised 0.4% q/q in Q4 (the Bloomberg median was +0.9 and out forecast was +0.8%). While growth slowed in y/y …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Industry dragging on the CEE recovery The weak set of manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for April suggest that industrial sectors remained a drag on the …
This Rapid Response has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a chart and table of key data. Growth to strengthen over 2024 Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that the economy exited recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to …
1st May 2024
Leadership promises continued policy support, new round of reforms The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. The tone remained dovish, suggesting that policy will remain supportive in the …
30th April 2024
Recoveries continue The slightly better-than-expected Q1 GDP figures out of Hungary and Czechia suggest that economic recoveries had a little more momentum at the start of this year than we previously thought and that the risks to our growth forecasts for …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fairly strong start to Q2 The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in April, but our regional …
29th April 2024
Softer inflation figure (just about) keeps a 50bp cut in May in play The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for the first half of this month, of 3.8% y/y, and signs of softening underlying core price pressures might just be enough to …
26th April 2024
Hawkish CBR worried about upside inflation risks The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we previously …
Hawkish message as rates remain on hold Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the tightening …
25th April 2024
Weak end to Q1 Poland’s weaker-than-expected activity data for March suggest the risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% y/y in Q1 (up from 1.0% y/y in Q4) are tilted to the downside. While we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 3.0% …
23rd April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity strong on eve of election The flash composite PMI reading for April suggests that the strength of economic activity over the past few quarters has continued through to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation fall will not sway the SARB into interest rate cuts The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.3% y/y, in March will not be enough to …
17th April 2024
Fiscally-fuelled improvement unlikely to last long Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky. …
16th April 2024
Inflation edges down and will remain low Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed to 1.6% y/y in March on the back of weaker food and non-food inflation. While there’s likely to be a slight bump up in inflation in the second half of this year, the …
15th April 2024
Further jump in inflation means tightening cycle likely to continue Nigeria recorded another acceleration in headline inflation to 33.2% y/y in March as the previous falls in the naira have continued to push up prices. And while the naira has staged a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% …
12th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication Credit growth plummets in a further sign of weak demand Bank loan and broad credit growth in China both decelerated sharply in March. (See Chart 1.)While we expect the PBOC to cut …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes remain strong Despite a larger-than-expected y/y fall in export values, export volumes climbed to record highs. Nonetheless, we still think export volumes will …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Overinvestment will keep inflation below pre-pandemic average CPI inflation rose less than expected in March but is still trending upwards. We think an easing of food price …
11th April 2024
Inflation stabilises, easing cycle is not that far away The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. The month-on-month …
10th April 2024
Underlying services prices still providing cause for concern The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with …
BoT on hold, but cuts likely later in the year Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, but with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we still think rate cuts are …
Inflation eases even after currency plunge Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed to 33.3% y/y in March despite the near 40% fall in the pound’s official exchange rate last month. That said, the effects of the currency fall will continue to feed through …
8th April 2024
Economy running hot in Q4, momentum continues into 2024 The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of …
5th April 2024
RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central bank's 4% target, we …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Extended pause likely until 2025 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. …
4th April 2024
Easing cycle just around the corner Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain our view that the …
Further rise in inflation will keep pressure on the CBRT to hike The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank (CBRT) to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our …
3rd April 2024
A soft end to Q1, but the Gulf economies still going strong March’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that, despite a minor tick down in the survey readings, the Gulf states enjoyed a strong start to 2024. Saudi Arabia’s survey edged down from 57.2 in …
Small improvement in CEE, Russia continues to run hot The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. Poland’s PMI inched up from 47.9 in February to 48.0, Czechia’s …
2nd April 2024
The Central Bank of Nigeria continued its hiking cycle today, raising rates by 200bp to 24.75%, providing further evidence that officials are fighting aggressively to tackle the inflation problem and restore its damaged credibility. We think that the CBN …
26th March 2024
Pace of easing slows, and will slow further before long The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to slow the pace of its easing cycle today, with a 75bp cut to its base rate (to 8.25%), will probably be followed by a further slowdown in the pace …
Little change in language, possible easing from mid-2024 Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central …
22nd March 2024
Easing cycle begins but rate cuts to be slow going Mexico’s central bank finally embarked on an easing cycle today, lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 11.00%, but the fact that the vote was split and that Banxico didn’t commit to further rate cuts …
21st March 2024
Governor Karahan retakes the initiative Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the potential for a …
Recovery strengthens Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for February suggest that loose fiscal policy and continued fast wage growth helped the economy to recover at the start of this year. We maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The flash composite PMI reading for March suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. While growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India …
Copom points to smaller cuts ahead The Brazilian central bank’s 50bp cut in the Selic rate to 10.75% today was never in doubt, but the change in the forward guidance supports our view that the easing cycle will slow to 25bp cuts soon (probably at the June …
20th March 2024
This publication has been updated with additional analysis from the post-meeting press statement and press conference. CNB’s easing cycle has a lot further to run The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we …
Jump in inflation to delay start of interest rate cuts The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y, in February means that the SARB is likely to delay the start of its easing cycle until after May’s election. …
Weak end to 2023, but better start to 2024 The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth forecast for …
18th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . A decent start to 2024 despite a still fragile consumer China’s economy continued to show some improvement at the start of the year thanks to strength in exports and fiscal …
Inflation hits 31%, but CBN likely to hold fire on further rate hikes Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 31.7% y/y in February and the naira’s latest sharp falls mean it will continue to march towards 35% y/y over the …
15th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Rebound in credit growth blown off course Bank loan growth in China decelerated to its slowest pace on record in February, while broad credit growth reversed most of its recent …
Inflation nudges up as rents continue to rise The increase in Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate to 1.8% y/y in February is the highest reading since August and it could creep to above 2.0% y/y in the coming quarters. The bigger picture, however, is …
14th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation picks further, rates to stay high for some time The rise in Russian inflation to 7.7% y/y in February highlights that price pressures in the economy remain strong and …
13th March 2024
Core inflation strength will worry Copom The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view that interest …
12th March 2024
