Brazil GDP (Q1 2024)

The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of economic growth – and of consumer spending in particular – at the start of the year will raise (even more) concerns about inflation at the central bank, suggesting that the risks to our year-end Selic forecast of 9.75% are increasingly tilted to the upside.