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China Merchandise Trade (Apr. 2024)

Export values returned to growth last month after contracting in March, but this was mainly due to a lower base for comparison. Export volumes were little changed in April following a pullback in the previous month. We think export volumes will retreat over the coming months due to cooling consumer spending in advanced economies and the diminishing tailwind from lower export prices. Import volumes edged up last month, and they will probably bounce back further in the near term, thanks to fiscal spending supporting import-heavy construction.

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