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President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 17%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest downside risks to our forecast for global GDP growth and a …
1st August 2025
One key driver of the rise in gold-backed ETF holdings appears to be increased demand from institutional investment managers. Given the weaker relationship between gold prices and US TIPS yields, which arguably boosts gold’s attractiveness as a portfolio …
31st July 2025
Despite some question marks being cast over whether the eight OPEC+ producers unwinding voluntary are keeping pace with the increases in quotas, our assessment is that they have added supply to the market at a decent pace so far. Rather than proceeding …
23rd July 2025
European natural gas stores are low and efforts to refill them will support prices over the rest of this year. Further ahead, increased supply should bring prices down to a below consensus €25 per MWh in 2026. Since hitting a post-energy crisis high of …
15th July 2025
If President Trump follows through on his threat to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, leading to a sharp drop in Russian energy flows, it would invariably lead to higher global energy prices. The impact would probably be greater on …
14th July 2025
The looming imposition of tariffs on copper by the US will continue to support prices in the US. But for all the attention on the surge in prices there, it won’t be long before fundamentals snap back into focus in markets outside of the US, which in our …
9th July 2025
The combination of exposure to retaliatory tariffs, upward pressure on input costs, and heavy reliance on “unauthorised” labour means that the outlook for the US farming sector is highly uncertain. But to the extent to which pain is offset by higher …
The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, we expect bearish fundamentals in the …
24th June 2025
This Update answers five key questions about a potential “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impacts on global energy markets from any attempt to close the waterway. As it stands, it is arguably not in Iran’s best interests to close the …
23rd June 2025
Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, so long as the conflict …
18th June 2025
This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is that an escalation of the conflict still leaves multiple …
If escalating tensions in the Middle East drive a prolonged period of higher oil prices, that could provide enough of an incentive for US oil producers to sustain the current high level of output for now. That said, US oil output faces growing headwinds …
16th June 2025
The Israel-Iran conflict has continued to escalate. This Update summarises how our views on the macro impact have evolved over the past few days and answers the most frequently asked client questions that we have received. What have we learnt in the past …
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
13th June 2025
President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But restrictions could be dialled back up. And as we set …
12th June 2025
Greater oil demand within OPEC+ economies – most notably Saudi Arabia – could offset additional supply from the group over the coming months and support oil prices. However, given that any boost to demand will be seasonal, we still think that Brent crude …
10th June 2025
The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only exacerbate this effect. Against this backdrop, our Metals …
2nd June 2025
The surplus in the EU carbon market dampened incentives to decarbonise in 2024, and the likelihood that the surplus is maintained until 2027 will keep a lid on carbon prices in the near term. Further ahead, a sharp contraction in the supply of carbon …
29th May 2025
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade (CIT) tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the Republican-stacked Supreme Court. The upside risks …
Less favourable conditions for global goods production and trade will be yet another factor weighing on demand for industrial metals and supports our view that prices will fall by more than the consensus expects. While we expect price declines across …
27th May 2025
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already largely recovered from the war-related disruption. …
The lack of an income stream makes it notoriously hard to value gold objectively. And while the price of gold relative to other assets – such as silver, oil and equities – is often used to assess the fair value of gold, structural changes over time can …
21st May 2025
After an extraordinary rally in gold prices, the recent pullback naturally raises the question of where gold prices may be headed next. In our view, the rest of this year will prove more challenging for gold prices than the first few months. However, the …
15th May 2025
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
13th May 2025
The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has much higher tariffs on China than on other countries and …
12th May 2025
Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently flagged the downside risks to oil prices over the past …
6th May 2025
It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable rollout. But at least in developed economies, it’s …
1st May 2025
Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But further signs that Saudi Arabia is willing to push oil …
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for Ukraine in peace talks, but Russia and Ukraine remain …
This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage across the value chain. And while volatile mineral prices …
30th April 2025
While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that homebuilders will be able to pass these costs onto buyers in …
29th April 2025
Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the key lesson from 2018 is that the risks to US soybeans …
25th April 2025
The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term, tightening the US domestic market. We think that this will …
24th April 2025
President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other governments will be moderate. In this scenario, global GDP …
10th April 2025
The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices. There are still many moving parts at this stage and …
9th April 2025
While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here, especially if a worst-case scenario for the US economy and …
The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk boosting gasoline prices. More generally, against the …
3rd April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for prices to fall to pre-pandemic levels over our forecast …
2nd April 2025
Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2 nd , dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed commodities are generally industrial metals, especially …
31st March 2025
Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead, the perception of gold itself as a safe haven is …
Despite President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, the uncertainty caused by tariff policy and his aim for lower oil prices is weighing on sentiment among fossil fuel producers. Sentiment will continue to sour as oil prices underperform producers’ …
27th March 2025
Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and apparent willingness to raise output blunt some of the …
25th March 2025
On the face of it, the US administration’s focus on lower oil prices, even at the cost of industry “disruption,” bodes ill for US oil production. That said, our forecast for WTI to fall to $56pb by end-2026 is consistent with output flatlining rather than …
17th March 2025
For all the focus on a possible ‘Trumpcession’ and the related risks to US oil demand, it is worth noting that oil demand growth is already anaemic and our view on the US economy is consistent with demand stagnating or contracting slightly in 2025. While …
13th March 2025
Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go far enough to address the structural headwinds facing …
5th March 2025
Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are the go-to resources to keep up with the impact of …
4th March 2025
OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price forecasts. Despite ongoing tensions within OPEC+ about …
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
26th February 2025
