Filtered by Subscriptions: Commodities Use setting Commodities
This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage across the value chain. And while volatile mineral prices …
30th April 2025
While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that homebuilders will be able to pass these costs onto buyers in …
29th April 2025
Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the key lesson from 2018 is that the risks to US soybeans …
25th April 2025
The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term, tightening the US domestic market. We think that this will …
24th April 2025
President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other governments will be moderate. In this scenario, global GDP …
10th April 2025
The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices. There are still many moving parts at this stage and …
9th April 2025
While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here, especially if a worst-case scenario for the US economy and …
The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk boosting gasoline prices. More generally, against the …
3rd April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for prices to fall to pre-pandemic levels over our forecast …
2nd April 2025
Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2 nd , dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed commodities are generally industrial metals, especially …
31st March 2025
Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead, the perception of gold itself as a safe haven is …
Despite President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, the uncertainty caused by tariff policy and his aim for lower oil prices is weighing on sentiment among fossil fuel producers. Sentiment will continue to sour as oil prices underperform producers’ …
27th March 2025
Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and apparent willingness to raise output blunt some of the …
25th March 2025
On the face of it, the US administration’s focus on lower oil prices, even at the cost of industry “disruption,” bodes ill for US oil production. That said, our forecast for WTI to fall to $56pb by end-2026 is consistent with output flatlining rather than …
17th March 2025
For all the focus on a possible ‘Trumpcession’ and the related risks to US oil demand, it is worth noting that oil demand growth is already anaemic and our view on the US economy is consistent with demand stagnating or contracting slightly in 2025. While …
13th March 2025
Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go far enough to address the structural headwinds facing …
5th March 2025
Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are the go-to resources to keep up with the impact of …
4th March 2025
OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price forecasts. Despite ongoing tensions within OPEC+ about …
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for Ukraine under Trump is likely to come with strings …
26th February 2025
Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply will weigh on global benchmark prices over the next few …
20th February 2025
Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets …
12th February 2025
China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s leverage during future negotiations. If the US …
The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is relatively exposed and it is likely that US steel prices would …
10th February 2025
A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly, with the supply backdrop likely to remain constrained for …
6th February 2025
The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for electricity, this could add further downward pressure on …
5th February 2025
Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil …
4th February 2025
Although European natural gas prices will still influence EU carbon prices in the near-term, investors’ recent optimism suggests that expectations for a tighter carbon market down the line are starting to drive a wedge between carbon and gas prices. The …
28th January 2025
Iron ore prices have been supported by optimism that policy stimulus may prevent a marked downturn in China’s construction sector. But we think that any stimulus-led boost will prove temporary and iron ore demand will weaken. Given that new low-cost …
27th January 2025
Traditionally, our bearish view on industrial metals, informed by China’s struggling property sector , would lead us to expect weakness in silver demand and prices. But given the growing use of silver in fast-growing and non-cyclical sectors, as well as …
The recent ramp-up in US sanctions on Russia’s oil supply chain has tightened the global oil market and may keep prices higher in the near term. But we still expect greater OPEC+ supply and weak demand growth to drive prices lower towards $70pb by the end …
14th January 2025
We doubt that US oil & gas firms’ optimism following Donald Trump’s election victory will translate into stronger growth in output as recent productivity gains falter and oil prices fall later this year. The latest Dallas Fed Energy survey showed that oil …
While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks – Saudi Arabia performing a major pivot in oil policy and …
9th January 2025
The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to the early-2010s was instead an era of globalisation: most …
7th January 2025
The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than in the US. The latest rise in EU natural gas prices …
2nd January 2025
Given the deterioration in the outlook for Chinese equities and the prospect of a markedly weaker renminbi, China’s demand for gold in 2025 will be stronger than we had previously expected. In turn, this will help offset the downward pressure on gold …
17th December 2024
While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could easily find itself back in a similar position in three months’ …
5th December 2024
While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain geopolitical backdrop is a major wildcard for energy markets. Of …
3rd December 2024
Despite the recent upward revisions to our forecasts for the US dollar and Treasury yields, we still think the gold price will rise to $2,750 by end-2025. This reflects our view that stronger gold demand from China and broader concerns about fiscal …
2nd December 2024
We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. What are Trump’s motives for threatening tariffs and will he follow through? Trump has spoken about using …
29th November 2024
US tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico would probably result in lower oil output in Canada and Mexico and higher US gasoline prices in the short term, and could also lead to a tightening in the global oil market over the medium term. Although US …
27th November 2024
The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow Lebanon’s shattered economy to recover and ease fiscal …
President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the countries targeted – Canada, Mexico and China – to head …
26th November 2024
European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back meaningfully once the wave of LNG supply arrives, with a good …
15th November 2024
President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers and exporters of CO 2 emissions is likely to shrink …
14th November 2024
Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the economic implications for Russia and Ukraine, for Europe …
It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift in the pro-Israel/anti-Iran stance that broadens the …
12th November 2024
Negative natural gas prices at a few trading hubs in West Texas, including the Waha Hub, have curiously become the norm this year. This Update looks at five key questions on the topic. 1) Why have natural gas prices at the Waha Hub been getting so much …
6th November 2024
OPEC+’s latest delay to its long-held plans to raise output will have a marginal impact on oil supply over 2025. We still suspect that OPEC+’s most likely course of action is to gradually increase output in 2025. However, the risks of a more aggressive …
4th November 2024
