Filtered by Subscriptions: Commodities Use setting Commodities
Clients can view all of our financial market forecasts here , and all of our commodity market forecasts here . This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we …
18th October 2024
Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon technologies are likely to see higher investment and, ultimately, …
3rd October 2024
While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from China’s construction sector. Against this backdrop, and …
19th September 2024
With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same profound impact on global commodity markets as China has …
10th September 2024
Against the backdrop of central bank buying, strong physical gold demand, and a surge in ETF holdings, China appears to have been a key driver of the rally in gold prices earlier this year. Looking ahead, we think that China’s appetite for gold will grow …
29th August 2024
Note: We'll be highlighting key takeaways from this report and answer questions in a Drop-In on Thursday, 25th July. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as …
23rd July 2024
A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again . But while he could deal another blow to the …
25th June 2024
The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as traditional demand for both metals has in the past. That said, …
23rd May 2024
The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower rates should be positive for commodity prices but, …
16th April 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
This report is the third of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU carbon price in the short term. While supply …
22nd February 2024
This report is the second of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It sets out our approach for modelling the fundamental price of an EU carbon permit [1] over the rest of this decade. In …
This report is the first of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It starts by explaining what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in …
Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile is likely to struggle to substantially raise copper and …
6th February 2024
We forecast that global lithium demand will roughly double by 2025 (from 2022). But supply will increase at a slower pace, which is why we forecast that prices will rise. Demand for lithium has surged in recent years, from 50,000 tonnes per year in …
31st January 2024
The surge in US exports of energy over the coming five years will ensure that the US remains a major supplier of fossil fuels to the rest of the world. A large proportion of these exports will be LNG, as new export terminals come online. But exports of …
10th January 2024
The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades. While we wouldn’t go as far as classifying the greenback …
12th December 2023
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is unlikely to generate a sustained hit to major asset markets. …
26th October 2023
Absent major fiscal stimulus in China, global steel demand growth will be weak in the next few months. Accordingly, we forecast price declines in major steel markets towards year-end. Only when economic growth recovers and interest rates fall do we see …
29th August 2023
The government’s ambition of developing a globally-competitive manufacturing sector, combined with relatively slow progress on shifting away from using coal for electricity production, means India will become the world’s biggest polluter in the …
23rd August 2023
The outlook for global agricultural supply has deteriorated since the start of the year as a result of extreme weather, the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the prospect of an El Niño weather event and rising agricultural protectionism. We have …
4th August 2023
The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV adoption than other forecasters and suspect the drag on …
31st July 2023
While the wholesale European natural gas price is now close to pre-energy crisis levels again, we don’t expect EU gas consumption to rise in response. Rather, we think that EU gas consumption has structurally fallen. This is the main reason why we think …
20th July 2023
The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus , we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are characterised by continued growth in energy consumption and …
27th April 2023
The fracturing of strategic supply chains into US and China trade blocs threatens Australia’s existing significant trade with China but also presents Australia with an opportunity to align its trade relationships with its existing security …
15th March 2023
We expect the wheat price to remain high this year as events in Ukraine and drought in other key producers hurt supply. Although the wheat price should drop back after this, the worsening impacts of climate change will put prices back on an upward trend …
22nd February 2023
The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might expect. However, the knock-on impact from higher …
30th March 2022
After soaring towards the tail end of 2020, steel prices in Europe have eased back in recent months. And we think that prices will fall much further over the next couple of years, as a combination of healthy profit margins and low inventories continue to …
18th November 2021
This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. In the first of a two-part Focus …
10th November 2021
We think that the adoption rate of renewable electricity will accelerate in the decades ahead, which should contribute to a near-continuous decline in demand for coal. Demand for natural gas should still eke out some growth over the next decade or so …
26th August 2021
History shows that supercycles are usually demand-driven, and that the performance of individual commodity prices has varied hugely both within and between past supercycles. In addition, supercycles can temporarily give way to shorter-run boom/bust …
17th March 2021
Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines from Africa and the East Mediterranean Sea will probably …
22nd February 2021
We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to remain spared, that figure could rise to around …
23rd December 2020
A victory for the Democratic party in November’s presidential election has several potential implications for commodity markets . Very broadly, Joe Biden’s pledge to actively promote decarbonisation of the economy should accelerate the move away from …
30th October 2020
In this Focus , we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030 . As a result, we expect that real oil prices will be falling for much …
8th October 2020
We expect the aluminium market in the decade ahead to be characterised by stubbornly low prices, as economic growth in top consumer China eventually slows and begins to drag on demand. But as consumption in other emerging markets increases and the …
30th September 2020
In our view, the scale of energy demand destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic has made the liberalisation of the global LNG market start to look inevitable . While pressure has been mounting on suppliers to offer more flexibility for some time, …
21st August 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
29th June 2020
We expect the palladium market to remain in a deficit this year as both demand and supply plummet. Palladium supply should bounce back reasonably quickly, but the medium-term outlook for palladium demand from the auto sector is much harder to call. On …
4th June 2020
It is now crystal clear that virus containment measures will deal an unrivalled blow to metals demand. But the extent to which these same measures may also hit supply is up for debate. Despite all the headlines, there is currently little evidence of a …
16th April 2020
The structural economic slowdown which we expect in China over the coming decade will weigh heavily on consumption of industrial commodities and their prices. Steel will be by far the most affected commodity, but copper and aluminium will also suffer. In …
3rd March 2020
Weakness in economic growth and unfavourable demographics mean that we expect most of the developed world, and China, to experience ‘Japanification’. One of the commodities most affected would be steel, which is why we are bearish on the long-term outlook …
24th January 2020
Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We find that expectations for future oil demand and supply …
13th December 2019
The September attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia re-ignited discussion of the “risk premium” in the oil price. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, we have created a methodology to estimate it indirectly . Our model found that, based …
31st October 2019
With question marks hanging over the outlook for global economic growth, it has become increasingly difficult to get a handle on the true state of physical copper demand. Therefore, we have turned to the Capital Economics Copper Demand Proxy for answers. …
2nd October 2019
War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest of the world, though, would be the resulting surge in …
20th September 2019
OPEC the exception, not the rule Most commodity cartels have failed to manipulate prices for very long, and we think that any future cartels in commodity markets will be no different. Arguably, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the …
15th August 2019
