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The German Economy Minister Robert Habeck admitted this week that the economic situation was “dramatically bad” and said the government would reduce its 2024 growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.2%. The new forecast is a bit lower than the Bundesbank’s latest …
16th February 2024
We survey 12 major advanced economy housing markets to understand why house price falls have been small despite high starting points and sharp increases in mortgage rates. We then use this information to ascertain whether the correction in house prices is …
14th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy to remain weak, strong labour market performance likely to end Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to …
Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy rate as the main tool to achieve price stability, and …
13th February 2024
Sharp fall in Swiss inflation reinforces our view that rates will be cut in March The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in …
This week, ECB policymakers again pushed back against the prospect of an imminent rate cut, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel saying that policymakers “must be patient and cautious”. Ms Schnabel’s main concern was that more clarity is needed on …
9th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further easing in core inflation sets up Q2 rate cut January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price …
The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is tightened. Headline inflation will be close to the ECB’s 2% …
8th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Industrial recession continues The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect …
7th February 2024
Price hikes back on the menu Data released this week support the case of ECB policymakers who are concerned about the strength of domestic inflation. January’s European Commission business and consumer survey, released on Tuesday, suggested that selling …
2nd February 2024
After years of fiscal largesse, austerity is back. We suspect that budget cuts will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by only around 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points per year over the next five years. But the EU’s budget rules will require some countries to tighten …
1st February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation falling but services disinflation stalls January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were …
The Riksbank signalled unequivocally in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated. While a March rate cut is possible, particularly if the January and February inflation data come in below …
Riksbank on track for May rate cut The Rikbsank signalled in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated, supporting our view that the first cut is likley to be in May. The decision to leave the key …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fall in inflation brings rate cuts nearer National data published so far suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone came down a little more than we had expected in …
31st January 2024
January’s European Commission business and consumer survey, released this morning, supports our view that the euro-zone economy will stagnate in Q1. But recent increases in services firms’ price expectations could prompt policymakers to wait a little …
30th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy to remain stagnant The euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we think that it will flat-line in the first half of this year too as the effects of past monetary tightening …
Euro-zone in or close to recession Fourth quarter GDP data published for for France and Spain this morning were a little better than we had anticipated. However, provided there is no revision to the “very preliminary” estimate that the German economy …
Most commentators and investors seems to have concluded that yesterday’s ECB meeting paved the way for an April rate cut despite President Lagarde explicitly standing by her view that the summer was more likely. We disagree and now see the risks skewed …
26th January 2024
Data released this morning suggest that the collapse in the euro-zone’s money supply might be over. But we expect money and lending growth to remain fairly weak. Since the ECB started raising interest rates, the narrow (M1) money supply has plummeted as …
The Riksbank is set to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week but we think it will begin to cut rates in the second quarter and reduce them faster than policymakers are forecasting. As a reminder, the Riksbank left its policy rate at 4.0% at its …
25th January 2024
The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and stuck to the argument that a first rate cut is most likely in the summer. An earlier move is still possible if the inflation data are weak in the next few months, but the risks are shifting towards rates staying …
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. In the forthcoming press conference, Christine Lagarde is likely to push back against expectations for policy rates to start falling in April. It came …
Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do so more quickly than its forecasts suggest. The decision …
Germany starts year in recessionary conditions The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January suggests that Germany started the year as it ended 2023 – in recessionary conditions. We think the economy will contract again in Q1 and forecast zero GDP …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs remain consistent with recession January’s euro-zone Composite PMI, published this morning, remained consistent with the economy contracting by around 0.2% q/q. The tick up …
24th January 2024
Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy may have contracted a bit more than expected at the end of last year. Germany’s first and “very preliminary” estimate of Q4 GDP suggests that it fell by 0.3% q/q. (See here .) And euro-zone …
19th January 2024
We think Norges Bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% next week but, given the weakness in the krone and tight labour market, retain a hawkish bias in its guidance. Further ahead, we think rates will be cut sooner than the Bank expects as …
18th January 2024
Policymakers to acknowledge weak economy and decline in inflation. But not ready to consider rate cuts. We expect first cut to come in Q2. The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect …
The latest euro-zone inflation data, published this morning, will dampen policymakers’ concerns about the strength of domestic price pressures. But with underlying inflation still too high for comfort, this won’t be enough for the Bank to change its …
17th January 2024
German troubles not over yet Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. Today’s data release shows that Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in calendar year 2023, and a …
15th January 2024
Household consumption in the euro-zone looks set for another bad year. We think that it will be broadly flat in the first half of 2024, keeping overall GDP growth close to zero for the next few quarters. It might start to pick up in Q3 and beyond, but a …
12th January 2024
At the ECB’s last meeting in December, President Christine Lagarde insisted that it was too early to discuss rate cuts. But the first comments of 2024 from policymakers, including Ms Lagarde herself, suggest that policy loosening may not be too far away. …
Some ECB Governing Council Members have called for an increase in reserves requirements, primarily in order to reduce the Eurosystem’s interest expenditure. If implemented – which we think is likely – this would have the effect of tightening monetary …
10th January 2024
ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will prompt them to start cutting in April. And in contrast to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fall in core inflation confirms Norges Bank is finished with rate hikes The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges …
Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy costs are still high. And weak demand will compound …
9th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone activity fell in Q4, services price pressures still look strong The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have …
8th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis. Rise in Swiss inflation will be reversed in January The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline …
Data released this week support our key calls on the euro-zone for the upcoming year. First, the economy looks likely to be weaker than most anticipate. Although the final euro-zone Composite PMI for December, released on Thursday, was revised up from the …
5th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jump in headline inflation is just a blip December’s jump in headline inflation in the euro-zone was widely anticipated and entirely due to a base-effects driven increase in …
Rebound in inflation won’t last The jump in Germany’s headline inflation rate in December came as no surprise as it was driven by energy price subsidies introduced more than a year ago. With core inflation continuing to trend down, it should not affect …
4th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to recession The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged …
Data released this morning showed that bank lending in the euro-zone picked up towards the end of last year. But we doubt that this is the start of a sustained turnaround. We expect the impact of tight monetary policy to weigh on lending and keep the …
2nd January 2024
ECB is talking but investors aren’t listening This week brought more pushback from ECB policymakers against expectations for rates to start falling in the first half of next year. But investors have largely ignored them, and arguably for good reason. …
21st December 2023
The end of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa’s time in office does not signify the end of Portugal’s impressive period of debt reduction. We think any future government is likely to exercise similar fiscal discipline while benefitting from …
20th December 2023
The goal of keeping government debt ratios stable or falling means that many euro-zone countries will need to tighten fiscal policy substantially and some will need to run primary budget surpluses for a long time to come. Italy has the most challenging …
19th December 2023
Last week, Christine Lagarde cited high wage growth and “domestic inflation” as reasons for the ECB to keep interest rates high. While domestic price pressures are easing, it will take several months for policymakers to see enough evidence that they have …
