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Recovery in activity won’t stop ECB rate cuts

Survey data released this week suggest that the euro-zone is coming out of recession. But with activity still very weak and wage growth appearing to have eased so far this year, we remain comfortable with our view that the ECB will deliver 125bps of cuts this year. Next week, we expect to learn that euro-zone GDP expanded slightly in Q1 and that headline and core inflation fell further in April. Otherwise, we think Norges Bank will keep rates on hold but signal that cuts are likely in Q3.

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