Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Europe Economics Use setting Emerging Europe Economics
Industry continuing to struggle across Emerging Europe The weak July manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe suggest that industry remains a drag on regional growth, and we expect that incoming tariffs will keep external demand conditions subdued over …
1st August 2025
Sentiment weakens, but points to robust growth The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the …
30th July 2025
Central Europe holding up fairly well amid US tariffs The Q2 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia confirmed that both economies have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April. With the EU-US trade deal likely to deal …
CBR steps up easing as economy slows The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to accelerate it is monetary easing cycle today with a 200bp cut to its policy rate, to 18.00%, signals that policymakers are becoming more concerned about the slowing …
25th July 2025
CBRT delivers dovish surprise, but easing likely to slow down from here The decision by Turkish central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 300bp today, to 43.00%, was a slight dovish surprise, but the accompanying communications remained hawkish and we …
24th July 2025
Above-target inflation to keep MNB on hold for some time The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged today at 6.50%, and we think that interest rates will remain at this level throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish view than the …
22nd July 2025
NBR leaves rates on hold with inflation poised to rebound The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold, at 6.50%, suggest policymakers are concerned about the inflationary impacts of …
8th July 2025
BoI leaves rates on hold, but cuts coming a little sooner The slightly more dovish communications accompanying the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, and the easing in geopolitical risks, suggest that …
7th July 2025
Soft inflation print points to July rate cut The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo rate to be …
3rd July 2025
NBP cuts by 25bp, with two further cuts likely this year The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back …
2nd July 2025
Warning signs for industry at the end of Q2 The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the region. That …
1st July 2025
Rate cut still on the cards on Wednesday The small rise in Polish inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June is likely to be followed by a fall back within the central bank’s target range over the second half of this year. We think this will give the National Bank …
30th June 2025
CEE generally resilient, with some weak spots The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional economic activity has been resilient in Q2, although there remains some points of concern – …
27th June 2025
CNB leaves rates on hold, easing cycle at an end The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, and we think that further monetary easing is unlikely this year. That is a slightly more hawkish view than the consensus, which …
25th June 2025
Hawkish MNB won’t rush to restart easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today at 6.50% and, in contrast to the consensus view that the easing cycle will resume this year, we think rates will remain unchanged throughout …
24th June 2025
CBRT still sounding hawkish, but cuts on the cards The statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its key interest rates unchanged was hawkish, suggesting that policymakers want to push back against expectations for aggressive …
19th June 2025
CBR delivers dovish surprise as overheating pressures ease The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% …
6th June 2025
Rates left on hold, but easing cycle to resume before long The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold today, at 5.25%, but this is only likely to mark a short pause in the easing cycle. We think that interest rates will be cut again at …
4th June 2025
Downside inflation surprise re-opens the door to monetary easing The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in May, to 35.4%, will increase the CBRT’s confidence that it can restart its easing cycle soon. While we had thought the easing cycle …
3rd June 2025
Tariffs may be beginning to take their toll on CEE industry The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures …
2nd June 2025
Opposition victory will continue to block government reform drive The victory for Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the nationalist opposition party (PiS), in Poland’s presidential election will continue to stymie the government’s efforts to push through …
Encouraging signs for the rebalancing process The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth, to 1.0% q/q, in Q1 and, more importantly, the fact that net trade is propping up growth provide positive signs that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance the economy and bring …
30th May 2025
Easing cycle to remain on pause, but tariff risks grow larger The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think it is likely that above-target inflation will prevent interest rate cuts being delivered this …
27th May 2025
Regional growth resilient (for now) despite tariffs The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional …
BoI leaves rates on hold, timeline for easing slipping back The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged as expected at 4.50% again today, but the accompanying communications took a slightly more hawkish tone on inflation. We think the easing …
26th May 2025
US-EU brinkmanship highlights risks President Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff from 1 st June may well turn out to be a negotiating tactic and seems very unlikely to be where tariffs settle over the long run. But if it were implemented it could result in a …
23rd May 2025
Sharp contraction at the start of the year The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had expected. …
16th May 2025
Risks now skewed towards hikes rather than further cuts The National Bank of Romania (NBR) highlighted concerns with the uncertain political backdrop and recent pressure on the currency when leaving its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%. We now think …
Growth slows across CEE ... but Poland beats expectations The Q1 GDP data released in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) today confirmed that growth slowed across the region ahead of the introduction of US tariffs. That said, Poland’s relatively strong …
15th May 2025
NBP cuts by 50bp ... but easing cycle may be more limited than most expect The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 5.25%, rather than opt for a smaller 25bp cut, suggests a slightly more dovish balance on …
7th May 2025
CNB cuts by 25bp, but easing cycle may now be over The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.50%, but we think that this may mark the end of its easing cycle. Our forecast for the policy rate to remain on hold at 3.50% over the …
Simion’s lead leaves Romania on the verge of a big political shift Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 …
5th May 2025
PMIs not as good as they look The manufacturing PMIs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up relatively well in the face of higher US tariffs, but forward looking components of the surveys suggest conditions may deteriorate ahead. Meanwhile, price …
2nd May 2025
This Rapid Response has been amended from our original response to correct the food CPI figure. Fall in inflation paves the way for May rate cut The larger-than-expected fall in Polish inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in April, is probably enough to tip the …
30th April 2025
Hungary contracts ahead of tariff impact The Q1 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia showed that momentum in both economies slowed at the start of this year, with Hungary suffering a renewed contraction. The risks to our below consensus full-year …
MNB to stay on hold as above-target inflation persists The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite downside risks to activity from US tariffs, we think its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025. …
29th April 2025
Sentiment holds up well in the face of Trump’s tariffs The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide a tentative sign that the impact of US tariffs on the region has been fairly contained so far. The …
CBR drops tightening bias, rate cuts likely in Q3 The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 21.00% again today and dropped the language in its statement that further interest rate hikes are possible. With inflation nearing a peak, …
25th April 2025
Odds of a May rate cut shorten The weaker-than-expected Polish industrial production and wage data for March have increased the probability that the central bank (NBP) will restart its easing cycle at its next meeting in May, but that decision will still …
22nd April 2025
CBRT signals tight policy here to stay The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to hike its one-week repo rate by 350bp, to 46.00%, formalises the emergency monetary tightening delivered last month and is a strong signal of commitment to a tight …
17th April 2025
Israel holds rates steady ahead of Trump-Netanyahu talks The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and sounded a bit more hawkish than at its previous meeting despite highlighting possibly quite a large hit to economic …
7th April 2025
Tariffs unlikely to bring forward rate cuts The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, highlighted two-sided risks to inflation and economic activity from US trade …
Softer inflation gives CBRT some breathing space The softer-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for March, of 38.1% y/y, suggests that the sell-off in the lira last month hasn’t exerted significant upwards pressure on consumer prices (yet). And as …
3rd April 2025
NBP remains on hold, although case for rate cuts starting to build The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left is policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and while our forecast is for policy settings to remain unchanged throughout 2025, the risks of an …
2nd April 2025
Central Europe recovering, Russia faltering The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe in March adds to evidence that the region is recovering from its recent soft patch. In contrast, the drop in Russia’s PMI suggests the economy may be starting …
1st April 2025
Easing cycle paused, and space for additional rate cuts narrows The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.75%, and we think that the scope for further interest rate cuts this year has become more limited. We had previously …
26th March 2025
MNB on hold, high inflation to tie new governors hands The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged today, at 6.50%, and we think its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025 as inflation remains stuck above target. Analysts have …
25th March 2025
Weak data to bolster calls for monetary easing The weaker-than-expected February retail sales data out of Poland suggests that the economy may have slowed a bit more sharply than we had been anticipating this quarter. While this won’t prompt the central …
24th March 2025
CBR sounds slightly less hawkish at it leaves rates on hold The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave its policy rate on hold at 21.00% today was accompanied by somewhat less hawkish communications. While we doubt the CBR will cut interest …
21st March 2025
Turkey’s central bank responds with a rate hike The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to reassure …
20th March 2025
