Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Markets Economics Use setting Emerging Markets Economics
EM consumer spending has been one of the bright spots in the global economy in recent years, supported by healthy wage growth, low unemployment and loose monetary policy. But retail sales growth tailed off in early 2013. In aggregate, sales growth fell to …
18th April 2013
Although emerging markets (EMs) have experienced rapid growth over the past 30 years, this period has been punctuated by occasional economic and financial crises. These have typically been preceded by “excessive exuberance” and rapid capital inflows to …
16th April 2013
The recovery of Emerging Market exports has continued in recent months, but forward looking indicators suggest that they will soften over the course of Q2. What’s more, a big divergence remains in the fortunes of the regions. While Emerging Asia, Africa …
12th April 2013
The latest data suggest that the EM recovery may already be running into headwinds. With policy set to remain loose in most economies, EM growth is probably not about to slow again and will far outpace growth in the developed world. Nonetheless the …
10th April 2013
Hopes that the rebound in China’s economy will help other EMs look set to be disappointed. Chinese trade data for March will be released later this week (Wednesday). But so far at least, the recovery in Chinese imports has been modest and concentrated on …
9th April 2013
The latest PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the emerging world stuttered last month. Activity slowed further in emerging Europe and Latin America. The only region where activity accelerated was emerging Asia, but these figures may have been distorted by …
3rd April 2013
At their summit in South Africa today and tomorrow, leaders of the BRICS are expected to announce progress towards setting up a development bank and to outline a plan to pool some of their foreign reserves. But in reality the group is more of political …
26th March 2013
Sentiment toward EM assets has turned negative over the last month despite the relatively upbeat performance of many developed markets. Equities have come off recent highs, currencies have mostly depreciated against the US dollar and EM sovereign bonds, …
20th March 2013
Our EM GDP Tracker provides tentative evidence that the recent emerging market recovery is losing steam. Growth slowed slightly in Emerging Asia and Latin America in January, and continues to be very weak in Emerging Europe. … EM recovery …
18th March 2013
The recovery in Emerging Market exports continues to be concentrated in Asia. By contrast, exports from other EM regions, and commodity producers in particular, remain disappointing. … Divergence in export performance …
14th March 2013
As the BRICs enter a period of slower growth, new emerging market “growth stars” will come to the fore. We are particularly upbeat on the economies of sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia. But Mexico, Poland and Turkey should also experience strong …
12th March 2013
Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. … Should we worry about EM central bank …
7th March 2013
The latest PMI surveys suggest that the recovery in emerging world manufacturing has lost a little steam recently. Part of the weakness can be explained by the effects of the Chinese New Year, which has dragged on Asian producers and should prove …
4th March 2013
The recent slowdowns in the BRIC economies are largely structural in nature and so are unlikely to be reversed without wide-ranging economic reform. Slower growth in the BRICs is likely to shave half a percentage point off global GDP growth over the next …
28th February 2013
The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been most vocal about currency strength (mainly in Latin …
25th February 2013
Talk of “currency wars” remains rife among EM policymakers but most EM currencies have actually weakened over the past month. This partly reflects growing investor fears of official intervention, but global risk appetite has also dipped – the rally in EM …
22nd February 2013
Capital flows to emerging economies are not yet running at a rate that should be a major cause for concern. But estimates of flows in aggregate miss some of the key risks facing individual economies. … Overall EM inflows not at danger levels but country …
21st February 2013
The continued weakness of exports from commodity producers in the emerging world will add further fuel to the debate over “currency wars”. By contrast, exports from manufacturing-focused economies in Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe have continued to …
15th February 2013
Behind the rhetoric of global currency wars lies a more fundamental concern that loose monetary policy in the developed economies will lead to rapid and destabilising capital inflows to the emerging world. As things stand, inflows to EMs as a whole are …
14th February 2013
Our Emerging Market GDP trackers suggest that growth across the emerging world has picked in recent months. We expect a further acceleration over the first half of this year, but sustaining the recovery later on will be difficult given the backdrop of …
7th February 2013
Strong employment growth, coupled with favourable credit dynamics, should ensure that consumer spending continues to outperform in Emerging Asia over the coming years. By contrast, consumption looks set to remain weak in Emerging Europe, while there is a …
6th February 2013
The ongoing recovery in emerging world manufacturing looks increasingly broad based. The PMIs for Latin America and Emerging Asia have risen rapidly since mid-2012 and the latest figures point to a turnaround in Emerging Europe too. … Major EM regions …
5th February 2013
Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging market recovery is strengthening and that growth accelerated in the final months of last year. Asia and Latin America are still leading the recovery, but there are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging …
31st January 2013
Emerging markets are in a sweet spot at the moment. Economic growth appears to have accelerated towards 5% y/y in Q4 of last year, led by a rebound in the Chinese economy. At the same time, aside from some increase in food prices, inflation pressures …
24th January 2013
The latest data show further strengthening in emerging market exports towards the end of 2012. However, the pace of export growth remains weak by historic standards. … Export recovery continues, but remains …
22nd January 2013
China’s low-end exports are now losing global market share. Rapidly rising labour costs in China mean this trend is likely to continue. Although many countries can now compete with China on labour costs, it is countries elsewhere in Asia, able to take …
17th January 2013
In parts of the emerging market world, an increasingly pro-cyclical government spending bias threatens to contribute to a more volatile pattern of growth. Within Latin America there is a risk that higher spending will lead to overheating and a further …
14th January 2013
The worst case scenarios associated with the US “fiscal cliff” have been avoided, but the US is still likely to get off to a slow start to the year. It will hold back growth in EMs, but it will not be a dominant factor in their overall performance. … …
9th January 2013
The economic outlook for the emerging world has brightened with most regions on course for a pick-up in growth in early 2013. But expectations for a rapid and sustained rebound are likely to be disappointed, in part because trend growth in the major …
8th January 2013
Emerging market manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than 18 months in December, according to the latest PMI data. However, the improvement in performance was concentrated in Asia and Latin America. By contrast, manufacturing growth in emerging …
3rd January 2013
Emerging markets (EMs) have endured their most difficult year since the global recession of 2009. GDP appears to have expanded by about 4.8% this year, down from an average of over 6% during the past decade. Admittedly, there are some signs that the year …
17th December 2012
The recovery in emerging market exports remains uneven, with manufacturing economies, mainly in Asia, continuing to outperform commodity exporters. What’s more, there are already some signs that the upturn is running out of momentum. … Export recovery …
14th December 2012
Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that emerging market growth has accelerated a little in the final quarter of this year. But growth remains subdued by the standards of the past decade and the recent improvement has been concentrated in Asia and Latin America. …
13th December 2012
Weak demand from the euro-zone accounts for about two-fifths of the decline in emerging market GDP growth over the past year or so, and the drag looks set to intensify as Europe slides into an even deeper recession. Unsurprisingly, the economies of …
12th December 2012
Emerging markets (EMs) will remain a relative bright spot in 2013. But with export demand from the developed world likely to remain subdued and structural problems dragging on growth in many of the major EMs, the bounce in GDP growth that many are …
10th December 2012
Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies. … How big a threat is inflation to emerging …
7th December 2012
A turnaround in export orders has given a boost to emerging world manufacturers, according to the PMIdata released over the last couple of days. However, with domestic demand in emerging economies stillsubdued and major developed markets struggling, it is …
4th December 2012
Strong domestic demand has partially offset export weakness in many emerging economies this year, particularly in Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for domestic demand look favourable in emerging Asia and parts of Latin America, but much less so in emerging …
29th November 2012
History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia and Europe are more likely to fulfil their potential over …
28th November 2012
Foreign exchange reserves in many emerging economies have fallen over the last year, leaving some exposed to a sharp slowdown in export revenues or to a sudden stop in capital inflows. Venezuela is the biggest concern but a number of economies in emerging …
22nd November 2012
Within the emerging world, the currencies of Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and Turkey look most overvalued. By contrast, the currencies of most Asian economies, including China, look undervalued. … Which EM currencies are cheap and which are …
19th November 2012
Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed on this front, but if commodity prices fall, several …
16th November 2012
Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive signs in the October data that have been released to …
15th November 2012
The latest vehicle sales data suggest that emerging market consumer spending has taken a turn for the worse. Moreover, the fact that vehicle sales growth has outstripped production in Latin America highlights the persistent competitiveness problems in the …
12th November 2012
There are tentative signs that export performance in some emerging markets has begun to improve. But for now this pick-up seems to have been limited to manufacturing-based economies, mainly in Asia. Commodity exporters, by contrast, still appear to be …
8th November 2012
The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to putting the economy on a more sustainable footing would …
7th November 2012
The PMI data released across the emerging world over the past few days showed some signs of improvement, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers are still struggling – particularly in the smaller, more open economies of Asia and Emerging Europe. … …
2nd November 2012
China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find themselves ill-positioned for the next stage of China’s …
31st October 2012
We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that inflation will be slow to fall back. Meanwhile, the …
29th October 2012
Despite our forecast that global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect remittances to most emerging markets will remain resilient. This will help drive growth in emerging markets and provide support to their balance …
26th October 2012
