Introducing the Capital Economics Risk Indicator

Although emerging markets (EMs) have experienced rapid growth over the past 30 years, this period has been punctuated by occasional economic and financial crises. These have typically been preceded by “excessive exuberance” and rapid capital inflows to the EM in question. In order to help identify those countries that are most at risk we have developed the Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) for Emerging Markets. This suggests that no EM is currently at immediate threat of crisis, but that the vulnerabilities are greatest in Turkey and Venezuela.