Another tough year in 2013

Emerging markets (EMs) have endured their most difficult year since the global recession of 2009. GDP appears to have expanded by about 4.8% this year, down from an average of over 6% during the past decade. Admittedly, there are some signs that the year has ended on a positive note: growth appears to have accelerated in Q4 with Emerging Asia leading the way. Nonetheless, with the major EMs struggling with structural challenges and growth in the developed world set to remain weak, we do not expect the improvement to last. Indeed, we are forecasting EM GDP growth of about 4.5% in 2013, slightly slower than in 2012.