The recovery in emerging market (EM) growth during the second half of 2012 has faltered since the start of this year. This is due in large part to renewed weakness in the BRIC economies, which we think reflects a transition to a new structurally slower rate of growth. And while the performance of other EMs, particularly in South East Asia and Africa, is likely to improve over the medium term, this won’t be enough to offset the impact of weaker growth in the BRICs on global GDP.
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