Industrial Production (May)

The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But manufacturing output is still slightly below its pre-pandemic peak and continues to lag well behind the earlier resurgence in goods demand.
Andrew Hunter Senior US Economist
Continue reading

More from US

US Data Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.)

The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that supplier delivery times and the accompanying upward pressure on prices may have peaked. But we suspect it will be a long time before supply constraints ease meaningfully.

2 August 2021

US Economics Weekly

Recovery to slow from here

The slightly disappointing second-quarter GDP data released this week and another dovish press conference from Chair Jerome Powell strengthen our belief that the Fed is unlikely to begin tapering its asset purchases until early next year.

30 July 2021

US Employment Report Preview

Payroll growth to remain elevated

With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July.

 

29 July 2021

More from Andrew Hunter

US Economics Update

Surveys suggest labour shortages persist

In contrast to the stronger payrolls figures released last week, the latest survey data suggest that labour shortages remain acute. That supports our view that the acceleration in employment growth in June probably wasn’t a sign of things to come and suggests that wage growth is set for a further acceleration.

7 July 2021

US Economics Weekly

Stronger payrolls intensify focus on tapering

We aren’t convinced that it will mark the start of a sustained acceleration, but the stronger gain in June payrolls will embolden those Fed officials calling for an earlier end to the Fed’s asset purchases.

2 July 2021

US Data Response

Employment Report (Jun.)

The stronger 850,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June may be a sign that some of the temporary labour shortages holding back the employment recovery are starting to ease. But with the labour force rising by just 151,000 and still more than three million below its pre-pandemic peak, we aren’t entirely convinced that this is the start of a much stronger trend.

2 July 2021
↑ Back to top