The drop in the IHS/Markit services PMI to a six-month low of 49.5 in September means that all three sector PMIs are now below the 50-mark which theoretically separates expansion from contraction, reigniting concerns that the economy is in recession. While we still think that the economy has avoided a recession in Q3, the data reinforce our view that the economy’s performance will remain well below par until Brexit is resolved.
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