Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most countries are in a much stronger position to weather a period of low oil prices than they were then. All told, we think lower oil prices are more likely to result in softer growth over the coming years, rather than an outright collapse in the region’s economies.
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