New gold and silver price forecasts

We remain bullish on gold and silver prices and have revised up our end-2019 forecasts to $1,350 per ounce and $17.50 respectively, as we expect both metals to attract investors seeking safe havens.
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Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Aug.)

August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think that any fall in supply will be compensated by weaker demand, causing prices to fall by end-2021.

20 September 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Zinc set to lose its shine

After climbing to multi-year highs in May, the zinc price has stayed strong, with much less volatility than its counterparts. However, we feel weaker economic growth in China and US tapering of monetary policy will work in tandem with the ongoing recovery in supply to push prices lower by end-year.

6 September 2021

Industrial Metals Update

China aluminium output: how worried should we be?

Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here to stay, we suspect that the falls in aluminium output will unwind before long.

1 September 2021

More from Capital Economics Economist

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed

Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic growth and low inflation than the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US.

20 June 2019

European Economics Focus

Cyprus to outperform euro-zone, but risks remain

Cyprus has now recovered from the economic crisis of 2012-13, which was caused primarily by its oversized banking sector. While a number of risks remain, notably the high level of non-performing loans, we expect the economy to continue expanding more rapidly than the euro-zone as a whole for the next few years, and the public debt ratio to fall steadily.

20 June 2019

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2.

20 June 2019
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