The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder of the year, prompting the real to give up some of its recent gains. Elsewhere, this week's central bank meetings suggest that the near-term outlook for monetary policy across the region is diverging, with Chile and Brazil shifting towards rate cuts while Banxico remains in a hawkish mood.
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