GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back our expectations for the timing of the start of monetary easing cycles to later this year. And we think interest rates will follow a higher path than most anticipate over the next 12 months. Public debt-to-GDP ratios will start rising again this year and private sector debt problems are likely to pose a growing challenge.
EM Drop-In (6th Apr.): Our latest EM online briefing is all about the risks around the recent bank turmoil, including potential economic spill-overs and the state of EM bank balance sheets. Register now.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services