The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export volumes falling at an annual rate of nearly 6% over the last three months. Those figures tend to overstate the weakness in trade. Even so, we expect GDP growth in Japan’s main trading partners to slow to 2.8% this year, the weakest pace of expansion since the global financial crisis. The upshot is that we now expect export volumes to fall by 0.8% this year.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services