Taken alone, prolonged restrictions on international travel would do little to hinder the global recovery since overseas tourism is a small share of world GDP and some of the lost spending would be made up. But the aggregate masks a wide range of effects. Major economies including the US and China would be unscathed, some middle-sized ones like Thailand and Spain would see their recoveries delayed and a few small economies including the Maldives and Cambodia could face severe balance of payments strains.
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